Do Rookies Make Good Presidents?

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Obama prefers the towering example of Lincoln, one of the least experienced men ever to assume the presidency. Before entering the White House, Lincoln had spent just a handful of years in the Illinois state legislature and a single term in Congress. Many commentators have noted the parallels between Lincoln and Obama: the Illinois roots, the penchant for inspiring oratory, the historic nature of both candidacies. (Lest the connection be overlooked, Obama launched his presidential campaign in Springfield, Ill., Lincoln's hometown.) We could do worse than to have Obama follow Lincoln's path, knitting together a fractured country, raising our sights from the mundane to the sublime. Still, it's hard to draw a direct comparison between the two. Pundits may like to say our country has "never" been as divided as it is in 2008. But Obama isn't confronting a Civil War.

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A more exacting model for Obama may be the rookie Democrat Woodrow Wilson, who logged a scant two years as governor of New Jersey (his first go at elective office) before making his bid for the White House in 1912. Like Obama, Wilson had spent his adult life immersed in university politics. Wilson's essays on American history feature the voice of a professor, not a machine candidate. Obama is himself something of a Wilsonian progressive, a man who puts his faith in transparency and voluntarism rather than New Deal--style interest-group wrangling. He also maintains some of Wilson's reserved and intellectual approach to managing the national welfare.

These traits served Wilson well. His first term saw the passage of groundbreaking measures (including the creation of the Federal Reserve) designed to stabilize and equalize a volatile national economy. Indeed, Wilson faced a country whose rage over Wall Street corruption and plutocratic greed makes current class-based grumbling look decidedly mild. Wilson managed to survive the political storm and win re-election by forging a judicious path between laissez-faire and socialism. What's more, he did it in an era when "socialism" was a genuine grass-roots movement rather than an empty political charge.

Ultimately, the First World War put an end to Wilson's progressive juggernaut; he won the war only to lose the peace. Fortunately, Obama seems unlikely to run aground in quite the same way. While Wilson proved too rigid to negotiate effectively with a postwar Republican Congress, Obama has already made a point of advertising his bipartisan intentions, and his skills at persuasion can hardly be overestimated.

Obama's greatest talent may lie precisely in his ability to be many things to many constituents: a bit of Lincoln, a dash of Wilson, a touch of Roosevelt and Kennedy and Clinton too. In that sense, no single example can tell us much about how he will ultimately lead. Like the many rookies before him, President Obama will write his own chapter of American history.

Gage is the author of The Day Wall Street Exploded: A Story of America in Its First Age of Terror, due in February. She teaches U.S. history at Yale University