How Far Will Sarah Palin Go?

A seemingly better fit would be a run for President in 2012. Palin has the ambition for it: note her efforts to distance herself from the failing McCain campaign by criticizing the use of robocalls and the decision to pull out of Michigan and by saying that just packing her bags for Alaska after a defeat would make her efforts "for naught." You'll know she is making presidential plans if she blames McCain for their loss and starts fundraising and networking with conservatives across the country. Could she win? Palin has shown her ability to connect with the conservative base, and she knows how to inspire donors to write checks. The McCain campaign raised $4.4 million in the first 12 hours after she debuted as his running mate, and by the end of that weekend, the total was $10 million. (On the other hand, Obama also raised $10 million in the 24 hours after Palin's convention speech.) For a party that never was entirely comfortable with its nominee, she was, in a sense, the anti-McCain — young, inexperienced, photogenic, ideological and popular in ways and in places that McCain was not.

The challenge would be to reach enough moderates and independents to win a general election. But Palin knows how to reposition herself. She started her career as a flame-throwing social conservative in Wasilla but pivoted artfully into the role of independent reformer in her run for governor. After speaking in highly partisan and sometimes regrettable terms about the "real America," she'd have to make a similar move to broaden her appeal again.

Imposing discipline on her sprawling army of supporters might be an even bigger challenge. Obama's efficient, competent, disciplined campaign set a new standard for a well-managed operation. Could Palin do the same? Probably not. One thing the Troopergate report revealed is that she surrounded herself in Alaska with a feckless mix of cronies and yes-men and ceded far too much power to her husband. She would have to be a much better manager and judge of talent than that.

Then, of course, there's the Katie Couric factor. Will Americans be able to forget the shell-shocked Palin of those early network interviews? This may be her greatest handicap; you know what they say about second chances at first impressions. But here too, it would be wrong to count her out. A friend of Track Palin, the governor's teenage son, once told me about having dinner at the Palins' house from time to time. He remembered seeing his buddy's mom watching the evening news and taking notes. This was before the klieg lights of the national campaign, before the halting interviews and the frenzied rallies. The image of Palin sitting in her home on Lake Lucille in Wasilla, scribbling notes to get smart on the news of the day, should be a warning to those who would discount Palin's future. She may have a lot to learn about the world, but she'll learn what she has to if that's what it takes to win.

— With reporting by Michael Scherer / Washington

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The original version of this article was updated to reflect the post-election.