When the U.S. Leaves, Will Iraq Strut or Stumble?

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The Risk of Civil War

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The Kurds have frequently warned that there may be civil war if they don't get their way; there will be if they do, say the Turkomans and Arabs. The closest the communities have come to battle was in late July: after a suicide bomber struck at a Kurdish demonstration, killing 25, Kurds turned their wrath on Turkomans, though the violence quickly subsided. Since then, a war of words has broken out. Arab politicians in Baghdad were enraged when the provincial government of Kurdistan struck deals with oil companies without consulting Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government; this was seen as proof that the Kurds were trying to grab Kirkuk's resources for themselves.

If Baghdad's Shi'ites and Sunnis can, with some help from U.S. arms and cash, come to terms, can Kirkuk's three ethnic communities find political accommodation without American assistance? U.S. officials believe it's possible. But there is no clear answer to the question, Who really has the right to decide the city's future? The last official census was in 1957, when the Turkomans had a slight edge over the Kurds, 40% to 35%. In the 1970s, Saddam Hussein sought to reorder the city's demographics by driving out some Kurds and Turkomans and busing up thousands of Arab families from the south. (See pictures of life returning to Iraq's streets.)

When I first visited Kirkuk after the end of the U.S. war against Saddam, tens of thousands of families were streaming in from Kurdistan, all claiming to be returning natives. Many took refuge in or around the city's giant soccer stadium, expecting to be resettled soon. Protecting the shantytowns were the Kurdish militias known as the peshmerga, who had fought alongside the U.S. against Saddam. As loyal allies, the Kurds were demanding that the U.S. hand over Kirkuk.

Iraq's U.S.-appointed administrator, L. Paul Bremer, demurred, though he gave Kurds key political appointments. On my next visit two years later, Arab neighborhoods were being depleted as the Kurds sought to drive out Saddam's supporters. Turkomans and Arabs remained adamant that many of the Kurdish newcomers were not Kirkuk natives but had been sent to try to secure a majority before a new census and hence win a referendum, mandated by the new Iraqi constitution, on the city's future.

Today Kirkuk remains in limbo. No census has been taken, and several deadlines for the referendum have passed. There are still nearly 500 families in the soccer stadium. One resident told me that when some kids started a game there, a woman washing her dishes shooed them away, yelling, "Is this the place to be playing games?"

In Kirkuk, more dangerous games lie ahead--when the Americans leave.

See pictures of Iraq's revival.

See pictures of U.S. troops' 5 years in Iraq.