Can India and Pakistan Lower Tensions Over Kashmir?

The two-lane highway between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad, lined with slim, pale poplar trees and winding past spectacular Himalayan mountains, has witnessed every chapter of the decades-old conflict between India and Pakistan over the divided territory of Kashmir. It was built for commerce: trucks carried apples from the surrounding orchards and handicrafts to markets in undivided India and beyond. Then in the 1990s, it became a highway of hatred, with buses transporting angry young men from Srinagar, capital of the Indian portion of Kashmir, to border towns, where they crossed to militant training camps, many of them in Muzaffarabad, capital of the Pakistani portion. They returned to join a raging insurgency against the Indian government. Now, five years into an uneasy cease-fire, the trade again is mainly in apples, with only military and police checkpoints to serve as reminders that the two countries are not much closer to resolving their differences over Kashmir. "We were quite happy to have another market for our produce," says Bashir Ahmed Bashir, president of the Kashmir Fruit Growers and Dealers Association. "It was a good omen. But sadly, Kashmir is again in the news for the wrong reasons." (See pictures of Mumbai sifting through the rubble.)

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• What Did Kashmir Have to Do with the Mumbai Attacks?

After years of relative invisibility, the dispute has returned to the world's agenda. U.S. and Indian officials believe that Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant group formed in Muzaffarabad, planned the Nov. 26 terrorist strike on Mumbai. The attack left 171 people dead and many Indians baying for revenge against the terrorists and their patrons; New Delhi says Pakistan actively supports and encourages groups like Lashkar. Although technically banned in Pakistan, Lashkar is thought to be working under the aegis of its charitable wing and is at least tolerated by Islamabad.

Alarmed that the nuclear-armed neighbors would return to the brink of conflict--it would be their fourth in 61 years--and undermine the war on terrorism in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan, the Bush Administration is pressuring Islamabad to crack down on homegrown militants. In response, Pakistani authorities have launched nighttime raids on several camps in and around Muzaffarabad, arresting at least 12 people. Among them: Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, a top Lashkar commander named by Indian police as the mastermind of Mumbai. (A spokesman has denied that the group had any role in the Mumbai attacks.)

The arrests are unlikely to mollify India, however; New Delhi is demanding more evidence that Islamabad is serious about withdrawing support for militants. "They need to show us that this time it will not be a farce," says B. Raman, former head of the counterterrorism branch of the Research and Analysis Wing, India's equivalent of the CIA. "They should either deport those accused of the Mumbai attacks or allow an Indian police team to visit Pakistan and interrogate them." But the Pakistani military and intelligence services are reluctant to comply. In the past, they have used groups like Lashkar to fight a proxy war against India, and the militants keep the cause of Kashmir--a popular one throughout Pakistan--alive. Islamabad has traditionally argued that the best way to stop the militants is to resolve the long-standing dispute. But after the terrorism of Mumbai, the Indian government is unlikely to be any more conciliatory.

See pictures of Pakistan's vulnerable Northwest passage.

See pictures of terror in Mumbai.