Pakistan's Prospects

Last spring, Richard Holbrooke outlined his prescription for what ails Pakistan in the Washington Post. In U.S. dealings with Islamabad, Holbrooke argued, "the message should be clear and consistent: democracy, reconciliation, the military out of politics, a new policy for the tribal areas--and more democracy."

It was a high-minded solution that would work at 30,000 feet. But the Holbrooke who arrives in Islamabad on Feb. 9, not as a columnist but as President Barack Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, will have to deal with ugly reality on the ground. Faced with a failing Afghanistan, the U.S. needs Pakistan's government and military leadership to work together to destroy al-Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries along the lawless northwestern border between the two countries, crack down on Islamic militants at home and protect the country's nuclear bombs.

As President Bill Clinton's troubleshooter in the Balkans in the 1990s, Holbrooke handled one tough assignment after another. But his present one is even harder. "Pakistan is where some of the world's biggest problems come together--international terrorism, the nuclear threat, the question of democracy in the Muslim world, drugs," says Bruce Riedel, a Brookings Institution expert who advised the Obama campaign on South Asia. "On top of that, it is central to winning the war in Afghanistan."

That is the war Obama has declared the U.S. must win, a task made more difficult by recent American neglect. The Bush Administration took its eyes off Islamabad after the fall of its favored partner, army general Pervez Musharraf, and the assassination of his would-be successor, Benazir Bhutto, with whom the U.S. hoped to work closely. Since Bhutto's death, a weak elected government and a recalcitrant military have failed to check the easy movement of al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in and out of Afghanistan. That has forced the U.S. military to launch targeted missile strikes on Pakistani soil, a policy that has enraged local public opinion.

Before leaving for his first trip to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Holbrooke began recruiting a team of experts drawn from the State Department, think tanks and colleagues from his Balkan days. But what do you do in a place that presents no good options? Here are three choices that are before the new Administration:

Trust the Democrats

President Asif Ali Zardari, Bhutto's widower, has a small plurality in Parliament, little sway over Pakistan's all-powerful military and none of the charisma of his murdered wife. But for the moment, he will probably be Holbrooke's most enthusiastic partner. For all of Zardari's flaws, says Riedel, "he gets it: he knows this is as much his war as it is ours." Zardari can't ignore the now routine terrorist strikes within Pakistan; suicide bombers have attacked major cities, killing hundreds. Besides, since Bhutto's death, Zardari is at the top of al-Qaeda's hit list. Because of a sense of self-preservation, or a commitment to responsible leadership, he has promised to crack down on terrorist groups.