Ballots into Bullets

In rich countries, democracy makes life more peaceful and prosperous; in poor ones, it makes life more dangerous. So argues Oxford economist Paul Collier in his bold new book Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places, which extends the discussion he began in his celebrated 2007 study of the world's poorest nations, The Bottom Billion. Collier's not the first to point out that elections, unsupported by robust institutions, are simply political fetishes. But his analysis, delivered with clarity and wit, digs deep into how they increase the risk of wars, uprisings and riots for the world's poorest. In rich democracies, elections allow citizens to hold their politicians accountable. Collier shows how in poorly educated places, riven by ethnic and tribal rivalries, the easiest way to win is not good governance, but bad. In a world that rewards the rituals of democracy — not just with local votes, but with fat aid checks from abroad — thuggery and vote-rigging pay.

To solve that problem he advocates selective international intervention, to "unleash the powerful force of the political violence internal to the bottom billion as a force for good instead of harm." In place of the Cinderella story of ballot boxes and instant freedoms so often peddled by the West, Collier offers hope based on the cold, hard facts of life.