Can the U.S. Contain Iran's Nuclear Ambitions?

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For a while, it looked as if Iran was going to smile back. According to senior U.S. and European diplomats, Saeed Jalili, Iran's representative at the nuclear talks, told Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief, that Iran would accept the invitation to talks. But then Jalili stalled, they say. By the end of the month, the U.S. and Europe concluded that Iran would not make a move before its presidential elections. Reflecting American distrust, the U.S. decided it would not reciprocate when Saberi was released on May 11; according to a senior Administration official, there has so far been no change in the status of the three Iranians held by American forces in Iraq, though the U.S. is considering releasing them to the Iraqis. (See pictures of Obama behind the scenes in Iraq.)

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This tough line on the part of the U.S. should not be seen as a surprise. Ross's policy is straightforward; if bigger carrots don't work, try bigger sticks. If Tehran doesn't enter serious negotiations by September, the U.S. intends to unveil a raft of penalties. In return for U.S. participation in the nuclear talks, Ross got the Europeans to help plan sanctions that would target Iranian businesses that have nothing to do with the nuclear program. The U.S. wants bans on insuring Iranian energy firms and any companies that do business with them. It also wants to stop credit guarantees for Iranian energy companies and those that work with them, and it wants to halt all investments in the energy sector. And Ross doesn't want to stop there. The U.S. has pushed Russia, a major trading partner of Iran's, to be ready to commit to sanctions on businesses unrelated to Iran's nuclear program — something Russia has resisted. In a secret letter in early February to Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, Obama wrote that the U.S. would abandon its plans for missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic — which the U.S. has always justified by referring to an Iranian threat — if Russia would help bring Iran into compliance with its international nuclear obligations. Back home, Ross has persuaded Howard Berman, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Relations Committee, to flip positions and introduce a bill that would impose a ban on the sale of refined petroleum to Iran.

Being Nice to Be Nasty
It makes you wonder, is Ross really serious about dialogue with the mullahs? "He favors a pro forma attempt at negotiations with Iran, followed by far more severe sanctions or even military action if and when they fail," says Gary Sick, a former National Security Council staffer who is now a professor at Columbia University. The Iranians, too, seem to smell a trap, telling European diplomats that they fear that the U.S. is extending a hand to Iran only in an attempt to build a united coalition against them when talks fail. Indeed, on his May trip to the Persian Gulf, Ross carried a message for Iran's Arab neighbors, all of whom worry that Tehran will get nukes if Obama makes too nice. "Right now we're trying to make this work," a senior Administration official said, paraphrasing Ross's talking points. But, he continued, "by drawing everyone in, we're also setting a stage that creates a justification if this doesn't work, to do [pause] dramatically different things.'"

The U.S., Europe and Russia all insist Obama's offer of talks is genuine and remains on the table. Perhaps the presidential election in Iran will bring a significant change; perhaps Tehran will negotiate its nuclear program back into compliance with international treaties. But few of those involved in Iran policy expect such events to happen. Dennis Ross has spent the first months of the Obama Administration peeling carrots. Don't be surprised if you see him soon sharpening sticks.

See pictures of Obama in Egypt.

See pictures of Obama behind the scenes in Iraq.