A Fun-Free Recovery

J Pat Carter / AP

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The Great Moderation was a name economists gave to a post-1982 era marked by only two mild recessions and long stretches of uninterrupted growth. That's over, and the transition to whatever comes next will, if history is any guide, be messy. From 1970 to '82, the U.S. economy was hit by four downturns, two of which (1973-75 and 1981-82) until recently competed for the title of "worst since the Great Depression." The current recession has undisputed claim to that title. And while we may be about to climb out of it, don't be surprised if we endure more downturns. Think of a W shape--maybe multiple Ws--not a V.

4. High energy prices.

Saying energy prices would stay high was one of the great forecasting errors of the late 1970s and early '80s--so it's a little scary to predict that they will stay high this time around. But the fact that even the slightest hint of a turnaround in the global economy has sent oil prices skyrocketing from $35 a barrel to more than $70 ought to be a sign that the upward price cycle that started a decade ago isn't played out yet. The crucial element may be that the struggling U.S. no longer drives the global demand cycle--China and India do.

5. Higher taxes.

There's just no way to square the cost of current recession-fighting efforts, future Medicare commitments and the various goals of the Obama Administration with the current level of taxation. Taxes are going to have to go up, and raising rates on just the very richest won't be enough. The only alternative is what some call the inflation tax--reducing the relative size of the country's debts by letting prices rise across the board. But that has its costs too. The free-lunch era is over.

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