Afghanistan: Looking For the Way Ahead

In an election campaign that has been interminably dull, even by German standards, the Sept. 4 missile strike on two oil tankers hijacked by Taliban insurgents in northern Afghanistan was always going to grab attention. The U.S. strike, called in by a German commander worried about the security of his troops, allegedly killed some 90 people, including dozens of civilians. It also reminded German voters that the distinction between supporting a combat mission — which is what they like to think their soldiers are doing — and tackling bad guys directly can blur pretty quickly in the Hindu Kush.

The polite posturing of Germany's election campaign captures the mood in most European capitals at the moment. Both Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats of Frank-Walter Steinmeier remain committed to Berlin's 4,000-strong troop deployment in Afghanistan as part of the multinational force there. But Die Linke, a smaller, left-wing party, has won support by campaigning on an immediate withdrawal, and as public support for the Afghanistan mission falls even the mainstream leaders are having to take notice. Steinmeier has recently hinted that he would pull troops out by 2013, though in a pre-election debate with Merkel he hedged his bets, saying that he merely wanted to "create the conditions" by 2013 so a "withdrawal could begin." Unsurprisingly, Merkel herself has suggested it might be time to draw up a timetable for a pullout. (See pictures of British soldiers in Afghanistan.)

Not a quick one, mind you. European leaders regularly argue that a hasty withdrawal would spell disaster for Afghanistan, neighboring Pakistan and for their own countries. French Defense Minister Hervé Morin has warned of "absolute chaos" if France pulled out and opened the door to a rush of other withdrawals. "When the security of our country is at stake," said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in a speech earlier this month, "we cannot walk away."

But that argument is getting harder to make. In most of Europe, Afghanistan has always been the good war, compared with the bad invasion of Iraq. After the attacks against the U.S. in September 2001, almost 6 in 10 French voters supported sending troops to Afghanistan. Italians and Spaniards backed troop deployments in similar numbers; Britons were even more enthusiastic.

Back then the mission seemed clear-cut and justified: to rid Afghanistan of a cruel, women-hating regime whose control over the country created a safe haven for a terrorist group that threatened the West. Even when they squabbled with Washington over Iraq, countries such as France and Germany stayed firm on Afghanistan. But public support has fallen over the years, and especially in the past 12 months. An August poll by French daily Le Figaro found that just 36% backed France's military's presence in Afghanistan. In July, a Forsa poll for German magazine Stern found that 61% of Germans want the country's military involvement to end. In Britain, which has 9,000 troops in Afghanistan — the second largest deployment after the U.S. — a recent survey for the National Army Museum found that only 25% favored the mission, compared with 53% opposing it. Even in the U.S. support for the war has slipped, as President Obama contemplates sending more troops. According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey this month, just 39% of Americans support the war, down from 53% in April.

See pictures of the U.S. Marines new offensive in Afghanistan.

See pictures of Afghanistan's dangerous Korengal Valley.