Freshmen Dems: Caught in the Middle on Health Care

Representative Frank Kratovil's district in Maryland stretches from the outskirts of Washington to the Delaware-Pennsylvania line — the cradle of American democracy. This summer, his constituents reminded him of their revolutionary roots when he was hanged in effigy outside one of his district offices.

"Things have calmed down a lot," the boyish 41-year-old muses as he walks through a fair in Elkton, a town on the upper reaches of the Chesapeake Bay. Strolling past a booth for the Sons of Confederate Veterans and a church stand selling handmade floral crosses, Kratovil meets Donna Horgan, 54, a Cecil County real estate agent and a lifelong Democratic activist, who urges him to vote for a health-care bill — any bill. "Continuing to say no is not really an answer," Kratovil replies in agreement. Horgan is left with the definite impression that Kratovil will vote for one of the bills. "I'd be very disappointed if he didn't," she says as he walks away.

These are difficult days for Kratovil, a freshman Democrat who beat his GOP opponent by 1 percentage point in a rural district that John McCain won by 18 points. He began his summer undecided about how to vote for the fairly liberal House health-care bills; after many dramatic (and unpleasant) town meetings, Kratovil was against all of them. Now he hopes the Senate measure will be more moderate and less costly than the three House versions. "I can't support the House versions," he says. "But in the end, I wouldn't rule out some compromise with the Senate."

Finding something that liberal voters can accept and moderates will tolerate is a challenge Kratovil shares with nearly 50 other freshmen and sophomores in districts won by George W. Bush and McCain in the past two elections. President Obama's party could lose 40 seats next November, according to political expert Charlie Cook, if Democrats fail to pass health-care reform and polls continue their downward spiral. "The kinds of conditions that create wave elections are the kinds of conditions we're seeing right now," he says. "Kratovil is in bad shape — as bad as an incumbent can get."

Kratovil likes to note that he is the third most independent voter in the Democratic caucus and that he led a group that pushed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to delay consideration of the health-care measure until after Congress's summer break. But those modest achievements have yet to win him many converts, and for moderates and independents leery of government, health care has become a bright line.

At a county fair in Baltimore's southern suburbs, Kratovil encounters Bob Bauman, 63, in a straw hat and a shirt adorned with an enormous bald eagle and an American flag. "I've been trying to get an appointment with you," the Severna Park native says. "We want to talk about the health-care bill from a small-business perspective." Kratovil launches into a list of his problems with the small-business provisions in the House bill. The two men exchange cards, and Kratovil promises to follow up. But as Bauman departs, he remains a Kratovil skeptic. "The jury's still out on if I'll vote for him," the lifelong Republican says. Luckily for Kratovil and his fellow freshmen, the election is still more than a year away.