Northern Ireland Sex Scandal

The scandal seemed ready-made for the British tabloids. First, Peter Robinson, the head of Northern Ireland's government, admitted that his 60-year-old wife Iris had embarked on an affair with a teenager two years ago. Then came the allegations that she had obtained $80,000 from two property developers to help her lover set up a café and that Peter Robinson, upon learning of the deal, failed to report it. Finally, following days of lurid headlines, the political fallout began.

On Jan. 11, Peter Robinson announced that he would step aside as First Minister for six weeks, saying he needed "time to deal with family matters" and vowing to clear his name. The appropriately named Mrs. Robinson, a prominent politician in her own right, gave up her seats in the British Parliament and Northern Ireland Assembly and checked into a psychiatric hospital. But much more is at stake over the next six weeks than the couple's political careers: the scandal comes at a critical time for the province's shaky power-sharing agreement. For months, the two biggest parties in government, Robinson's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which is mostly supported by Protestants, and the Catholic Sinn Fein, have been at loggerheads over the devolution of policing and justice powers from London. Sinn Fein wants control over the police to be transferred to Belfast to end what it perceives as a pro-Protestant bias. But many Protestants are reluctant to change the status quo. Now, Peter Robinson's personal crisis threatens to turn an impasse into a political vacuum — with potentially deadly results. (See pictures of new hope for Belfast.)

Sectarian violence has made a worrying return to Northern Ireland in the past year, with the killings of two British soldiers and a policeman in attacks blamed on dissident republicans opposed to power-sharing. And on Jan. 8, another 
 policeman was wounded in a bombing. The Independent Monitoring Commission, a paramilitary-watchdog group, said in November that dissidents pose a greater security threat now than at any time in the past six years. Many fear a political collapse could play into their hands and lead to more attacks. (See pictures of the British army leaving Northern Ireland.)

If the coalition falls apart, that would also trigger new elections to the Assembly. And this may not be good for the DUP. Iris Robinson's affair has rocked the rural evangelicals who comprise the party's base, and may lead some to drift toward two smaller Protestant parties. A three-way split of the Protestant vote could give Sinn Fein the largest number of seats in the Assembly, causing the political process to grind to a halt. Such an outcome would also be a disaster for Robinson, who has steered the DUP away from its original firebrand populism to its current position atop Northern Irish politics. If he fails to return to power, it could mean the end not only for a prominent political family, but also for the province's painstakingly negotiated power-sharing system.

Read "Site of IRA Hunger Strike Haunts Northern Ireland."

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