Iraq's Messy Democracy

The Virtues of Compromise
These issues are political dynamite. Devolving power to Kurdistan or to the Shi'ite south — the two safest, richest parts of Iraq — could reignite the civil war between Shi'ites and Sunnis or start an additional one between Arabs and Kurds. But to centralize all power in a country with a history of totalitarianism has its own perils. That's why Iraqis will be watching their elections closely: not just to see the results but also to gauge whether their leadership class can accept the outcome of the vote and move forward peacefully. That will not be easy. "It's hard teaching people who have come out of a dictatorship to negotiate with each other," says the U.S. NGO worker. "In a dictatorship, all they know is win-lose. It takes time for them to learn that in a democracy you can have win-win compromises."

There is plenty of reason to be concerned that Iraq's leaders haven't yet learned to compromise. None of the five leading political blocs are likely to emerge from the election with enough seats in parliament to form a government on their own — which means Iraqis may have to endure weeks of political wheeling and dealing. Meanwhile, Iraq's undercurrent of violence and sectarianism is resurfacing as the election nears. Dozens of bodies are turning up daily in the morgues of Baghdad and Mosul, including some with their heads cut off, a signature al-Qaeda calling card. Mortar shells are falling once again on the International Zone, probably the handiwork of radical Shi'ite militias. "After 2003, Iraqi politics got so complicated, with so many parties, and so many foreign countries got involved that it's like the whole political scene is built on straw," says Hazem Shammari, a professor of political science at Baghdad University. "If one thing goes wrong, we'll go back to [civil war]." (See pictures of heartbreak in the Middle East.)

The Return of Chalabi
Democracy in Iraq can't go too far off the rails while U.S. soldiers are still in the country. "No one will attempt a coup d'état while the U.S. is in Iraq," says an al-Maliki aide. "Unless the U.S. is behind it." But with a date set for the end of the American occupation, U.S. influence in Iraq is already waning. Ironically, the best proof of that is the rise, once again, of Ahmad Chalabi. The formerly exiled leader of the Iraqi National Congress — an anti-Saddam dissident group — helped the Pentagon plan the invasion of Iraq and was the candidate of U.S. neoconservatives to be the country's new leader. Chalabi fell out with the U.S. in 2004 and has reinvented himself as a Shi'ite nationalist allied with the Sadrists. As the co-head of a secretive government de-Baathification committee, Chalabi helped orchestrate the banning of about 500 mostly Sunni candidates from running in the election, a move that revived fears of a return to sectarian violence. "The Americans say they came here to build democracy, but what kind of democracy is this?" asks Saleh al-Mutlaq, the leader of the country's second largest Sunni Muslim party and one of the banned candidates. "The Americans brought Ahmad Chalabi to Iraq. They should solve this problem, or they should just leave." (See TIME's Iraq covers.)

Though some in Iraq continue to doubt Washington's resolve, U.S. troops are indeed leaving, at the rate of about 10,000 per month. Much as they may enjoy their democracy, many Iraqis are concerned about who will fill the vacuum. Iran, for example. Tehran watched with glee as the U.S. toppled its archenemy Saddam, but worried that it was the next candidate for regime change, the Islamic Republic has supported anti-American Shi'ite militias and political parties ever since. Iran won't be the only country likely to flex its muscles after the election. Turkey — which has a restive Kurdish minority of its own — will try to block any further devolution of power to Kurdistan. And last month, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah invited leaders of a pro-Sunni coalition to visit Riyadh, a sign that the kingdom would like to play a role as protector of Iraq's Sunnis. "Everyone in the region will try to occupy Iraq," says Sheik Hussam al-Mojammai, the head of Baqubah's Awakening Council, a Sunni citizens' brigade that helped defeat insurgent groups in the province. "Even little Djibouti."

With so many foreign powers playing politics in Iraq, the future of the nation will depend on the skill, maturity and willingness of its leaders to compromise. Plenty don't think they are up to the task. "They are going to push us back to civil war," says Daha Arwai, the head of a charity that looks after the children and widows of men murdered by militias. Will Iraq's leaders prove her wrong? Joe Biden is convinced they will — but then, the Vice President is one of life's sunny optimists. Most others, watching Iraq, have their fingers very firmly crossed.

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