The Big Questions: By Mark Halperin

Is President Obama on the ropes?

If the election were held today, the Obama-Biden ticket would not win the 270 electoral votes required to hold the White House. The coalition that helped elect the President--fired-up liberals, independents, business interests, a friendly media contingent--has been disbanded. Deep-pocketed conservative donors and Republican voters are desperate to depose the man they consider Jimmy Carter redux or worse. Democrats on Capitol Hill privately display nearly as much disdain for the Administration as their GOP counterparts, complaining about both its incompetence and its ideology. Most of all, Obama now owns a weak economy and hasn't been able to generate his own luck.

What advantages does Obama have?

No matter whom the Republicans nominate next summer, the President still has a firm hold on many blue states (anchored by California and New York) and liberal constituencies. Obama believes the GOP is so in thrall to conservative purity that independent voters will come back to him when they go shopping next fall for a candidate. No one has a better record of taking up his game when everything is on the line. And he recently acknowledged he'd be willing to "grind it out a little bit"--presumably meaning "get tough"--when the time comes.

Where will the race be won and lost?

It will be very hard for Obama to repeat his '08 wins in Florida and Indiana, and he has challenges in Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina. An Obama landslide seems out of the question at the moment, but he can still pull off a squeaker. As he has said, he's currently the underdog in this contest.

CUBA, SI

The rush is on: Delta, United Continental and JetBlue are joining American as charter carriers to Havana now that the White House has relaxed restrictions on travel to the island by students, journalists and religious groups. Obama officials have okayed direct flights from 15 U.S. cities; 400,000 will make the trip this year, a 160% jump from 2010.

POLLS

Romney Outpaces GOP Rivals ... So Far

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is the Republican front runner in each of the first four primary states, according to a new CNN/TIME/ORC poll. Businessman Herman Cain is running a strong second.

IOWA

1. Romney 24%

2. Cain 21%

3. Paul 12%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

1. Romney 40%

2. Cain 13%

3. Paul 12%

SOUTH CAROLINA

1. Romney 25%

2. Cain 23%

3. Paul 12%

FLORIDA

1. Romney 30%

2. Cain 18%

3. Gingrich, Perry 9%

Top 10 Points of Departure

NUMBER OF DEPORTATIONS

[The following text appears within a chart. Please see hardcopy or PDF for actual chart.]

NO. 1: SAN ANTONIO 63,090 6,953

NO. 10: NEW ORLEANS 15,363 3,944

116,782 2001

396,906 2011

2001

2011

IMMIGRATION

Time to Go Home