Why haven't allegations of sexual misconduct against Herman Cain finished him off?
They might soon, but for now, Cain has two factors on his side. Many of the Tea Party outsiders who are drawn to the political neophyte's econocentric campaign don't give a whit about old harassment charges and dismiss news coverage of the allegations as a left-wing conspiracy. Second, there is ample precedent in presidential politics (see Clinton, Bill, 1992, and McCain, John, 2008) of campaigns overcoming personal scandals by discrediting the women in question and the news organizations that cover them.
In the meantime, are some Republicans cooling on Cain?
Yes, indeed. Cain stands to lose support everywhere, but especially among women, Evangelicals, elected officials and those looking for a safe bet to send into a general election against Barack Obama. Much of the political press, including some conservative commentators, is convinced that Cain will soon be eliminated as a true contender. This will have a real bearing on his chances of staying on message--and in the race.
Who would benefit most from his fall?
Mitt Romney, the frontrunner, again could take advantage of the dramatic breakdown of a top rival. Newt Gingrich is on something of a roll, leaving him best positioned to scoop up newly unattached supporters. But in Austin, Texas Governor Rick Perry's campaign is hoping that new TV advertising and a stepped-up schedule will give their man a chance to snatch the Tea Party mantle from Cain's slumping shoulders.
ELECTION ROUNDUP
NUMBER 53%
Percentage of constituents who voted to recall Arizona senate president Russell Pearce, architect of the state's tough immigration law
OHIO
Labor Scores Landslide Win
In a hard-fought triumph, Democrats and their labor-union allies repealed a controversial law that curbed collective-bargaining rights for teachers, cops and firefighters. More than 60% of Ohioans rejected a ballot referendum on the law, Republican governor John Kasich's signature piece of legislation. "The people have spoken," Kasich said.
MISSISSIPPI
'Personhood' Dies in the Bible Belt
Nearly 60% of voters in this staunchly conservative state blocked a constitutional amendment that would have declared that life begins at the moment of conception. The "personhood" initiative, which would have banned all abortions, was designed to spur a Supreme Court challenge to Roe v. Wade.
The Balance of Power
[The following text appears within a chart. Please see hardcopy or PDF for actual chart.]
PRE-ELECTION Senate
22 18
39 59
House
POSTELECTION Senate
20 19*
32 66
House
* ONE RACE LEANING REPUBLICAN; IN A DEADLOCK, THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR, A REPUBLICAN, CASTS THE TIE-BREAKING VOTE
ONE RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VIRGINIA
GOP Gains Mean Trouble for Obama