Lone Star Rising

The risk for Bush is that when he explains his position on divisive social issues such as abortion, he seems to communicate what his audiences want to hear. He manages to satisfy pro-life-movement leaders like the DeVoses without spooking pro-choice Republicans like New Jersey state senator Diane Allen, who left a meeting convinced that Bush would not make the fight against abortion a feature of his campaign. "He made it clear that this is not an issue that can be legislated," says Allen. Hearing that may not rile conservatives half as much as the news that Bush is planning his own "Sister Souljah" moment. Sources close to Bush say he may stage a high-profile break with social conservatives over some issue as a way of declaring his independence from his party's radical wing--much as Bill Clinton did when he infuriated orthodox liberals by condemning the rap singer in 1992 for lyrics that incited violence against whites.

As welcome as it has been in Austin, the excitement over Bush has raised expectations to a level no mere politician can hope to meet. The Governor has been topping G.O.P. primary polls for months; in the latest TIME/CNN poll, he is 30 points ahead of his nearest challenger, Dole. And he leads Gore 52% to 41%.

And yet to most Americans--even most Republicans--he is an empty vessel into which they're being invited to pour their hopes and dreams. They know he is his father's son--a little tougher, a little more country--and they may know he's a popular Governor. But that's all. Which means that once the campaign begins in earnest, well-financed contenders like Forbes and scrappy underdogs like Pat Buchanan and Gary Bauer will start trying to define Bush themselves, and the picture won't be pretty. "We don't know if this guy can take a punch," Buchanan has said privately. The Governor may survive, but he will certainly suffer. The sudden flameouts of presidential front runners, of course, can make Internet stocks look dull. Says a Bush team member: "This is the best it will be for the next year."