The Plug-In Surge

The prospect of $100-a-barrel oil and the higher gas prices that inevitably follow made hybrid vehicles the hot topic once again at the annual Detroit auto show, which was held in mid-January. BMW, Ford, Honda, Mercedes, Toyota, Volkswagen and Volvo all introduced new hybrids or plug-ins. Hybrids didn't have a great 2011; they represented only 2.2% of U.S. auto sales, down from 2.4% in 2010. But automakers are betting that the global energy equation--including high demand for fossil fuels from emerging markets, possible supply constraints in the Middle East and the push for tougher environmental standards and regulations--means the math will soon make more sense. "Today you pay a premium to buy a hybrid, and you won't get that money back for a long, long time" via cheaper gas bills, says Edmunds.com senior analyst Michelle Krebs. The equation is constantly changing, though. Consulting firm McKinsey & Co. estimates vehicle electrification--that is, hybrids, plug-ins and electric vehicles (EVs)--could account for 20% to 25% of U.S. auto sales by 2020. Chevy predicts 45,000 Volt purchases, up from less than 10,000 in 2011. Toyota, meanwhile, foresees a 60% increase in U.S. Prius sales thanks to the launch of a plug-in and the Prius C, which gets 50 m.p.g. and starts under $19,000. Below, a look at what it costs by the mile to drive the hottest new models.

[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

HYBRID

ELECTRIC VEHICLE

PLUG-IN GAS-EV HYBRID

*Notes: Cost of driving a mile assumes a car life of 100,000 miles, the cost of an in-home charger for electric vehicles and a gas price of $3.38 per gal.

Cost per mile for the Chevrolet Volt and Toyota Prius Plug-In is based on electric m.p.g.

Sources: RealtyTrac; National Weather Service; National Center for Atmospheric Research; car manufacturers