How to Bring Change to the Kingdom

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Abdullah faces similar difficulties when it comes to issues like sex and education. The ban on women driving certainly limits Saudi economic potential. But what had been a long-standing cultural taboo became a seemingly irreversible religious edict in 1990 after a group of 40 women protested against the prohibition by driving cars in a convoy through downtown Riyadh. Abdullah has green-lighted a very limited population control campaign to address what may be the gravest long-term threat to stability, a birthrate unofficially put at 4.2%, one of the world's highest. (The population of Saudi nationals is 17.4 million.) Yet he fears the wrath of religious leaders, who claim that Islamic teaching calls for large families.

The Crown Prince is also overseeing a review of the Saudi school curriculum, which emphasizes Islam even in science and history classes, and churns out thousands of unemployed religious scholars every year. Still, education officials are making no apologies for textbooks that preach suspicion of non-Muslims, even to the extent of discouraging Saudis from congratulating Christians or Jews on their religious holidays. Abdullah rejects charges that the education system is breeding future bin Ladens, but many Saudis who can afford it prefer to send young children abroad for schooling. "I hate this fanatical crap my kids have to put up with," says Badr, 42, a Riyadh businessman. "I want to teach my kids about Islam. I don't want the state to do it."

Hobbling Abdullah's efforts is the fact that, as Crown Prince, he lacks the full authority of a king to act. Fears of a power struggle in the royal family have proved unfounded, with Abdullah serving as day-to-day ruler with the consensus of other powerful princes. Insiders say that tensions on issues like the pace of reform and cleaning up corruption simmer between Abdullah and other ranking princes, notably influential Defense Minister Prince Sultan, the next in line to the throne after Abdullah. "The Crown Prince is in an unenviable position," says a prominent Jidda businessman close to royal circles. "He is in power, but he doesn't have all the power."

Royal rifts cast an unflattering light on the Kingdom's failure, in its 70 years of stability and prosperity, to evolve institutions capable of running a modern society. Each week Abdullah — unusually for a senior prince — spends an hour or two holding a Majlis, a traditional Bedouin form of consultation. Hundreds of grizzled tribesmen compete to press petitions into Abdullah's hand, requesting help in a land dispute, a medical emergency or a blood feud. "Look at how they shout at him," remarked Abdullah's son Prince Mithab during a recent Majlis. "Where else do you see people talking to heads of government like this?"

True, but few Saudis would argue that such proceedings are the way to handle the complex problems of a country in the 21st century. Prince Talal, a senior member of the al Saud clan and a strong Abdullah ally, is outspoken in calling for greater change, starting with putting religion in its proper place in society. "Freedom, democracy, women's rights, human rights — these are all valid and we have to address them as soon as possible," says Talal. "A dialogue between the rulers and the ruled is what we are calling for." But, as Talal acknowledges, such a dialogue is not easy to bring about without bolder leadership. "In all honesty, I regret that I do not know how [this will happen]," he shrugs.

The Crown Prince is not so uncertain — not in public, anyway. It is just after evening prayers when Abdullah sits back in an easy chair for a three-hour discussion of the challenges the Kingdom faces. As he chain-smokes his way through a pack of Vantage cigarettes, he makes it clear that the Islamic establishment's political influence on the House of Saud is never far from his mind. He points out with approval that Saudi Arabia's religious leaders have begun to tone down their rhetoric, which is often strewn with anti-American and anti-Semitic rants. There is no sign that he plans democracy any time soon, beyond the Kingdom's nine-year-old, 120-member appointed national assembly. His bottom line is that change will come, but at a Saudi pace. "It is more rational to change gradually," he explains. "There is less disruption to the social balance. We are blessed that we can afford gradual and continuous change."

A world increasingly concerned about Saudi Arabia's future can do little more than hope that Abdullah is right. If it turns out that Saudis must adapt more rapidly, however, they will discover whether their future monarch is equipped to lead the way. That will give Abdullah the chance to put those sneakers to a bigger test.