In a State of Decline

Ukraine should be one of the powerhouses of Europe: bigger than France and Switzerland combined, rich soil, a well-educated population of 50 million, once part of the industrial heartland of the Soviet Union. Instead, it is an embarrassment, marginalized as smaller neighbors like Poland and Hungary prepare to join the European Union — and most other European leaders try not to think about it. Pretty much the only time Ukraine makes the front pages, in fact, is when another scandal blows up. Like the one involving former Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko, now in detention in the U.S. but pleading his innocence, who bought a $6.7-million mansion in California, in cash, or the tapes that revealed the voice of President Leonid Kuchma — misleadingly edited, his aides claim — saying that an investigative journalist should be "given" to the Chechens. The journalist was later found dead.

It did not have to be this way. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the leaders of the new Ukrainian state had plenty to worry about. Russian subversion, for example, or the ecological damage wrought on their land by the Kremlin's industrial policies. But at least the country was economically and culturally viable, they said. They were overly optimistic. Ukraine's first 10 years of independence have turned out to be a lost decade and the history of those years, in the words of a U.S. diplomat, are best viewed as "a case study in state-sponsored looting."

This week Ukraine is coming to the end of another bitter, rancorous and accusation-filled election. Officially at stake are the 450 seats in the parliament, or Verkhovna Rada. The most powerful challenge to Kuchma comes from Viktor Yuschenko, who acquired a modest reputation as a reformer during his time as Prime Minister and whose Our Ukraine bloc is way ahead in the polls. Yuschenko promises that "We'll build a Ukraine that we won't be ashamed of."

The hidden agenda in the elections, Ukrainian observers say, is Kuchma's political survival. The President and his supporters reject the slew of allegations laid against him — from illegal arms sales through murder and massive corruption — describing them as the work of hostile Western governments, enemies at home or the likes of financier George Soros. But they clearly worry him. To strengthen his position — and ensure he is not prosecuted when he leaves — he may need to change the constitution and give himself a third term, or find a successor who will protect him. Whichever path he chooses, a supportive Rada is vital.

Few Ukrainians outside the ruling class seem to care much about the elections, though. Most are becoming alienated from the political process. They have other things to worry about, like making ends meet.

In 1990, on the eve of independence, says Miroslav Popovich, a political analyst and director of the Institute of Philosophy in Kyiv, "Ukraine was an industrial- agricultural country, with more population in cities than in the countryside. In the past 10 years the trend has been reversed." The majority now live again in villages, he says, in circumstances of "appalling poverty, with no visible way out." Ukraine's fertile soil means no one is dying of starvation. But with the average monthly salary at $59, and pensions at $22, many Ukrainians spend more time thinking of food than politics.

Culturally as well, the country has failed to gel. Although more than 70% of the population are ethnic Ukrainians, the main media, printed and electronic, continue to be in Russian. Western Ukraine, the one part of the country attached, ferociously so, to the Ukrainian language, has developed a reputation for extremist nationalism. Controversial and well-publicized decisions — last week, for example, the city of Ivano-Frankivsk recognized veterans of the SS Galicia Division as combatants for the freedom and independence of Ukraine — help maintain this image.

And while the Crimean peninsula's 278,000-strong Muslim Tatar population is viewed by the government in Kyiv as "peaceable vegetable growers," as Popovich puts it, strange things are happening there. Arabs from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere are providing funds and supplies of extremist Islamist Russian-language literature from Chechnya, according to Yanina Sokolovskaya, Ukraine correspondent of the Russian daily Izvestiya. A Tatar paramilitary organization, 100 or so members of which reportedly fought in Chechnya against the Russians, is quietly training in the hills of Crimea. And the idea of "marrying Crimea to Chechnya," Sokolovskaya says, is becoming more and more popular among young Tatars.

The immediate issue before Kuchma, however, is winning a majority in parliament. The fact that there are dozens of parties competing should help the President. He needs help. His personal ratings are in the region of 16%. And the last polls before the election — Ukrainian law bans them when polling day is two weeks away — gave his bloc, For a United Ukraine (F.U.U.), around 4.9%. But only half the Rada members are elected directly. The rest are appointed on a proportional basis to those parties that gain 4% or more of the national vote.

A number of other parties and political leaders running in the election are thought to be quietly backed by Kuchma — notably the leader of the Social Democratic Party, Viktor Medvedchuk. Russia is also openly signaling its support for Kuchma and the F.U.U. Most importantly, perhaps, Kuchma has at his disposal what is known throughout the former Soviet Union as "administrative resources" — the ability to mobilize the whole local government to re-elect the ruling party. Thus, Olexander Chubuk, chairman of the farmers' association of the Zgurivski district in the Kyiv region, says that local doctors and teachers were instructed to make sure that their patients and students voted for the F.U.U.

Kuchma is also said to be targeting one of the most popular leaders, Yuliya Tymoshenko, a wealthy businesswoman and former deputy premier, whose image as a martyr was boosted during her 42-day detention on charges of corruption, smuggling and embezzlement of state funds, all of which she denies. "The March 31 elections to the Rada will give the answer to the main question facing us: whether we will overcome disbelief, fear and be victorious, or remain fearful slaves," she says. Tymoshenko's bloc, named after her, does not seem set to do well. But the President is taking no chances. "Kuchma sent word out to local authorities," says Ukrainian journalist Olexi Stepura. "In towns where Tymoshenko's bloc wins, the mayors will be fired."

Politics as usual, in other words. The elections may help Kuchma stay afloat and could even help a successor emerge from the pack. But there is little likelihood that they will help Ukraine emerge from the margins of Europe.