The Prime Minister's War

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Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's first 100 days in office have been spent on war. No economic policy, no diplomatic initiatives and few memorable declarations other than a promise to "rub out" terrorists wherever they may be found--"in the latrine if necessary." Yet his many backers see Putin as a leader with a calling--a man who will lead Russia's revival after almost 15 years of self-abasement and failure, a leader who will preside over a strong state and a new, more powerful army, a future President with zero tolerance for separatism--or for Western interference in Russia's affairs.

Putin has reassured the oligarchs who control modern Russia--a mix of powerful business, mob and military interests--by undertaking not to roll back the controversial, often corrupt privatization programs of the mid-'90s. He has delighted the armed forces by pumping close to $115 million into the war in the Caucasus. But the clearest political ideology to emerge in Putin's first months in office is isolationism.

Since NATO's intervention in Kosovo, Russia has been sliding toward confrontation with the West. This has only accelerated under Putin. If the Russians smash the Chechen resistance, Putin's allies in the armed forces will want their country to be more assertive in the Caucasus, where Georgia and Azerbaijan are edging closer to the West.

The Russian people clearly love Putin. If the presidential elections were held today (they are scheduled for July), Putin would win by a landslide. Most rivals would probably drop out. Yevgeni Primakov, who a few months ago seemed a shoo-in as President, says warm things about the former KGB lieutenant colonel. Onetime Western favorite Anatoli Chubais, who has emerged as a hawk on Chechnya, is pushing hard for Putin. The Prime Minister is even thought to be on friendly terms with Grigory Yavlinsky, the major Duma player and former boxer who is just about the last credible democrat in Moscow. But to be on the safe side, the Kremlin election team is pummeling opposition leaders. The main victim so far has been Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov, who, along with Primakov, leads the opposition Fatherland-All Russia bloc. In prime time, state-owned TV routinely accuses Luzhkov of murder and other crimes.

The main problem for Putin is that he has to wait until summer to run for President. Between then and now, Yeltsin may complicate things by firing yet another Prime Minister who has become unacceptably popular. Or the war in Chechnya could turn from a national celebration into an international nightmare. Getting fired probably wouldn't be fatal to Putin; it usually boosts a Russian Prime Minister's popularity. Failure in Chechnya, however, would be. Russian hopes for revival and Putin's political future require victory in Chechnya. And that is a very tall order.