Giving McCain The Boot?

Sunday, Jan. 30, 2000 By ERIC POOLEY

Article Tools

Reprints

When John McCain is looking for luck--taking the stage for a debate or bracing himself for Tuesday's must-win G.O.P. primary vote in New Hampshire--he likes to stuff his pockets full of talismans--the lucky compass one of his supporters gave him, the lucky pen, the lucky feather. McCain puts on his lucky shoes

Who could blame him? Some otherworldly force must have helped McCain get this far against party favorite George W. Bush--and now McCain needs all the mojo he can muster. If he loses in New Hampshire this week, his candidacy is almost certainly dead. And even if he squeaks past Bush in the Granite State, McCain will have no time to savor his victory, because he's got to keep climbing the impossibly steep cliff that stands between him and the nomination. His next jagged ledge on the way up: the Feb. 19 primary in South Carolina, where he trails Bush by a 20-point margin, 52% to 32%, in the latest TIME/CNN poll. That's down from a 47-point gap just two months ago, but Bush and his advisers are so sure they can squash McCain in South Carolina that they're playing it safe in New Hampshire. Where McCain's events in the state last week were crowded with believers and flushed with underdog excitement, Bush's were often subdued, with a complacent and obligatory air suffusing both the candidate and his supporters. Bush gave his speech and moved on; his audiences clapped and went about their business. No one broke a sweat.

While the McCain team was living in fear of an over-the-weekend volley of Bush attack ads--the kind that past G.O.P. front runners have often used to seal victory--Bush's aides swore they had no intention of trying any rash moves that might carry the state but poison Bush's image over the long haul. After Steve Forbes' 30% showing in Iowa, some raised the possibility of Bush's being pinched between Forbes on the right and McCain in the middle. Forbes' bankroll is always a factor, but Bush isn't worried about it--few people think the publishing tycoon can repeat his Iowa performance in New Hampshire--and Bush isn't fretting about McCain either, because he's sure time is on his side.

If the only way to win New Hampshire is to go negative, a senior Bush adviser told TIME late last week, "I guess we'll lose New Hampshire. But we aren't going to lose South Carolina. And we aren't going to lose the nomination. Forbes went negative in '96, and look what it got him--the eternal scorn of his own party. Our object is to conduct a campaign that gives us the best shot at winning in November. And if that gives us a little short-term pain, then fine."

It's easy to be brave when you're sure the pain isn't going to be all that painful. And Bush last week was pleased to hear that various New Hampshire tracking polls had McCain's lead drying up as the week wore on. The same polls made McCain seem understandably rattled at times, and his aides worked hard to allay his fears. On Friday, as the candidate got back on his bus after an impromptu stop near Exeter, strategist Mike Murphy told him he'd just spoken to a pollster. "He says it's in the bag," Murphy assured him.

It wasn't in the bag, as McCain well knew. His lead had evaporated because Bush had been raising some tough (but not especially outrageous) questions about McCain's tax-cut plan; because New Hampshire races often tighten in the last week; and because McCain's hip-shooting style had finally backfired on him.

Both McCain and Bush have tried to maintain quietly pro-life positions that won't alienate moderate and independent voters, but on Wednesday, McCain tripped over his own straddle. A reporter aboard McCain's rolling political salon hit him with a tough "hypothetical": What would he do if his 15-year-old daughter were pregnant and wanted to get an abortion? He made the mistake of answering it, then flubbing it, saying first that his daughter would have the "final decision"--a suspiciously pro-choice position for a pro-life candidate--and then, in a clarification issued soon after, that it would be a "family decision." For pro-life activists, McCain's purity on the issue has been suspect since last summer, when he told the San Francisco Chronicle that he would not work to overturn Roe v. Wade. (He later rescinded the comment, or tried to.) Now there was fresh fuel on the fire, and McCain had to spend the rest of his day smothering flames from reporters and rivals such as the surging fringe candidate Alan Keyes, who sermonized on the subject during Wednesday night's G.O.P. debate. At first McCain's debate responses were flat--he answered Keyes' philosophical question with a line about his pro-life Senate votes--but later he uncorked a strong set piece that managed to leap from abortion to his war record: "I've seen enough killing in my life," he told Keyes. "I know how precious human life is. And I don't need a lecture from you."

McCain parries tough questions by hiding behind biography. Bush parries them by hiding behind campaign cliches--and when that doesn't work, he simply suspends contact with the questioners. On Jan. 20 in Iowa, the Texas Governor suffered through his own media grilling on the abortion issue, repeatedly refusing to say whether he would require his Supreme Court nominees to be pro-life and promising only to choose "strict constructionists" (a line that some moderates might misread but pro-life people see as a pledge for pro-life litmus tests). The reporters kept clamoring until Bush had had enough. Last week one of his campaign spokeswomen informed the media that the Governor wouldn't be holding any press conferences for a while. "It's not in our best interests," she said with surprising candor. "We have a message of the day, and we're going to stick to it." Read her lips: no new chances to pin Bush down. Then reporters started howling, and Bush backed down.