Poll Position

When James Soong left the Kuomintang (KMT) prior to Taiwan's 2000 presidential race, he essentially handed the election to Chen Shui-bian and his upstart Democratic Progressive Party. Soong, running as an independent, outpolled the KMT's nominee, then-Vice President Lien Chan, 36.8% to 23.1%. Chen, however, took 39.3%, putting an end to more than 50 years of KMT rule. But three years in the political wilderness seem to have thawed the friction between Soong and Lien, and—on Valentine's Day, appropriately enough—they announced that they would join forces against Chen in the next election, in March 2004.

How will one ticket accommodate the competing egos of Soong—who heads the People First Party—and Lien? Early indications are that Lien would be the presidential candidate, and Soong his running mate. "I don't mind what my position will be," says Soong. Some analysts see this as a wise display of pragmatism from a former governor whose popular support isn't what it used to be. "Soong is a political realist," says National Taiwan University political scientist Lu Ya-li. "He knows that the PFP isn't ready to rival the KMT."

This partnership portends a stiff challenge to Chen come 2004. His DPP has never polled more than half the votes in a national election, and his term has been marked by an anemic economy, record unemployment, and an ineffectual legislature. Still, he has solid support in certain quarters, especially the south. What's more, Lien is an uninspiring campaigner and neither opposition party has yet articulated a compelling vision for Taiwan. Soong, of course, could still break off his engagement to Lien. But for now, the man who'd like to be king has once again positioned himself to play kingmaker.