Season Of The Strike

(2 of 2)

While that evolution may prove monumental for French society, it directly involves very few people. French unions represent around 9% of the work force — a fact Chérèque calls the paradox of France's labor scene. "The unions are weak, but our oppositional power is very strong," he says. "In other countries, unions are involved in the dialogue of making labor policy; they never have been in France. It's a problem that politicians of the left and right have never faced properly." In Germany, by contrast, the unions represent around 30% of all workers, are seen as partners (though at times difficult ones) by both government and business, and operate pension programs. As a result, they not only attract and command large numbers of loyal members, but can extract concessions with the mere threat of strikes — meaning the number of days lost to walkouts in Germany is far less than in under-unionized France.

Chérèque is encouraged that Prime Minister Raffarin — who handles domestic affairs while President Jacques Chirac plays diplomat — is confronting the problem. So Chérèque is trying to respond in kind. Without a meeting of the minds on pension reform, "we'll have no movement on this for the next five years," he says.

None of this means Chérèque is willing to play yes-man to the government. He supports the pension reforms, but wants to see the level of pensions for retirees who earned lower salaries increased from the proposed 75% to 80% of France's minimum wage. He also sees successful reform tied to a number of other factors hampering the French job market. He blames the education system for producing graduates "with no qualifications for jobs" who are shunted directly into unemployment; he says there has to be a more rational way to retrain middle-aged workers for existing jobs; and he characterizes France's research policy in job-promoting sectors like biotech and medicine as "catastrophic."

Blondel's idea essentially involves extending rights under the current system and increasing taxes on business and the rich to finance it. Thibault's CGT accepts some government measures, and agrees with many of Chérèque's propositions. Still, Thibault argues all workers must be

allowed the right to retire with full pensions at 60, regardless of years worked, and says payments to retirees must be guaranteed to remain at current levels. "We will not accept a reform that would have socially disastrous consequences," Thibault warns. "When 80% of a text is bad, it must be rewritten."

That Blondel is at the negotiating table, and Thibault shares some of Chérèque's positions, indicates that France's economic and demographic problems are causing a degree of pragmatic evolution inside the labor movement. The question is how much. There's no doubt, however, about the seriousness of the crisis. As the baby-boomer generation approaches retirement, the projected pension shortfall is estimated at €43 billion by 2020 alone. "There's general agreement that measures must be taken to save our pension system, but utter disagreement with the government plan — which it presented as a take-it-or-leave it offer," says Jean-Christophe Le Duigou, a CGT specialist on pensions. "This is a critical time. Intransigence taken by any side carries grave risks for a retirement system we're all trying to save. Yet any union that accepts a plan the public deems a sellout will forever lose its credibility."

Officials on both sides of the barricades seem to realize the dilemma. "This government will be judged on reform of the pension system and the health-care system," Chérèque warns. "If it doesn't pull that off, it will be cooked." But the same is true for the labor movement. Union leaders acknowledge that a repeat of 1995 — national paralysis followed by the fall of the government — would spell defeat. The unions need to make an impressive show of force without striking such a defiant pose that they come off looking irrational. A successful march along that very fine line could signal a new era of collaboration between labor and the government. Should either side fall, it could be back to déjé vu all over again.