New Europe Old Economy

Even if the vote fails, the parliament, which is controlled by pro-E.U. parties, could still ratify the accession treaty. And surveys last week were predicting a 55-60% turnout. The clincher may be the Pope, a larger-than-life voice in Polish affairs, who last week finally gave his blessing. "Europe needs Poland," the Pontiff told Polish pilgrims in Rome, "and Poland needs Europe." One pollster said that was like giving Poland a ticket to the E.U.

Another reason why support for the E.U. may be gaining ground is the sputtering economy. It's shedding so many jobs that the only thing keeping many Poles off the streets is the "gray" or shadow economy, which experts say makes up about 27% of overall GDP, higher than Poland's southern neighbors, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, but comparable, roughly, to Italy and Greece. Socialist-era dinosaurs have not modernized fast enough and face more layoffs. The coal sector alone was hemorrhaging $1 billion a year until a few years ago; that figure is down to $130 million now, but analysts say at least 12 more mines must shut, swallowing about 35,000 jobs.

At the Tadeusz Sendzimir Steelworks in Nowa Huta, a suburb of Krakow, even drastic measures have yet to produce results. The payroll is down to 8,500, from 29,000 in 1989, but the company is still in the red. At the Bar Bistro at 20 Solidarity Avenue, Franciszek Donarski, 45, just off his shift at the plant, feels the strain. He can afford one beer a day: "Two or three and you go in debt," he says. A cartoon chalked on a wall at his plant depicts a rotund worker with a bulbous nose holding a shot of vodka. "Welcome if you are bringing money," it reads in Polish. "Goodbye if you are coming to get it."

"Sometimes I have the feeling we can't accomplish all we need to do at the same time," muses Jacek Piechota, Secretary of State for the Ministry of Economy, Labor and Social Policy. But critics say the government, which plans to cut corporate income tax from 27% to 19% while abolishing most tax breaks and exemptions, is not doing enough — especially to cut social spending and invest in infrastructure like roads.

The biggest loser in all this may be Prime Minister Miller. His party came to power promising professionalism and transparency, but failed to deliver. He is also embroiled in a high-profile bribery scandal in which a leading film producer is accused of soliciting bribes from Michnik and others on the government's behalf. Though unproved, the so-called Rywingate affair has soured Poles on their leaders; approval of the parliament is less than 15%.

Joining the E.U. may preserve Miller from defeat in early elections, but the economy still requires a systematic overhaul, says Witold Orlowski, head of President Kwaśniewski's team of economic advisers. The benefits of E.U. accession have, for the most part, already been factored in by the markets, he says. "It's no magic bullet. It will not help with labor-market reform, public-sector reform, creating a good business climate for Western investors. That is all up to us." Nor can Poles rely too heavily on their recent $3.5 billion purchase of 48 F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. aircraft manufacturer Lockheed Martin, the biggest defense contract in post-communist history. The deal is expected to bring in up to $12 billion in offsetting investments, purchases and other contributions to the Polish economy, though actual direct investment will be closer to $1.5 billion. Its impact on a $180 billion economy, says Orlowski, is little more than symbolic.

Symbolism can hurt sometimes. Poland chose Lockheed over two European competitors, the French Mirage and the British-Swedish Gripen. That led unnamed French officials to complain that Poland was not acting in the proper "European spirit" — and that was before the Iraq imbroglio. German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer recently wondered aloud whether Washington was using Poland to divide and weaken the E.U., echoing German press comments that Warsaw was Washington's Trojan horse on the Continent, or as one columnist put it, "Trojan donkey."

Poles reject the slur. "U.S. diplomacy was heavy-handed and arrogant, but not more so than the French," says Michnik. "We had two arrogances to choose from." National Security Adviser Siwiec says Poland would have loved to follow European foreign policy, if it could have detected one. He said Poland's contribution to the E.U. will be as a player, not a follower, suggesting it has special expertise on the former Soviet Empire. "We know 10 times more than they do about these places," he says. "We can be the bridge."

For many Poles, Europe vs. America is a false choice. In one poll, 60% said that the best hope for Poland's development is as an integral part of Europe, not as a distant commercial ally of the U.S. (10%). Even ardent supporters of the war in Iraq like Michnik dismiss the idea of a Europe divided into "old" and "new" as "absurd." Beata Roguska, a pollster in Warsaw, explains the complexity of Polish feelings for Europe and America another way: "It's like asking, 'Do you love Mom or Dad?'" Poles have had two centuries of being forced into choices they did not like: defeated, occupied, subjugated by their bigger neighbors. Now they want to make their own choices, including not to have to choose one friend at the expense of another — and to walk their own path to membership in the world of the prosperous and free.