Like Father, Like Son

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Throughout his career, Heydar Aliyev — President of Azerbaijan, KGB general and veteran of spectacular Kremlin intrigues in the waning years of the U.S.S.R. — was a consummate in-fighter who prided himself on total control of the state machine. Earlier this month, as the 80-year-old Aliyev lay in a Turkish hospital, reportedly near death, he pulled off his final piece of political gamesmanship: the appointment of his 41-year-old son, Ilham, as Prime Minister, ensuring that should Heydar die or become incapacitated, Ilham can take over as acting President. And as a Russian IL-62 flying hospital rushed Aliyev from Turkey to the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio on Aug. 7, the Azeri cabinet agreed to allow its new Prime Minister to take an unpaid vacation so that he could campaign for the presidency. Both Aliyevs are on the ballot for the election, scheduled for Oct. 15. Aliyev's succession plan, notes a longtime observer of the Caucasus, "depended on the old man being around for a couple more years to pull the strings." But now a messy and perhaps violent period of instability appears to be looming as opposition leaders at home and in exile vie with the ruling élite for control of the country.

There is a lot to fight for. Azerbaijan remains miserably poor — the average salary is around $50 a month — but has enormous energy resources, including some of the world's largest natural gas reserves and rich oil fields in and around the Caspian Sea. But Ilham is no Heydar Aliyev, and may be in for a tough time. He is said to have gone into politics reluctantly, on his father's orders, and his highest profile job to date has been as chairman of his country's Olympic Committee.

Moscow watched with dismay over the past decade as Aliyev senior moved closer to the U.S., and will undoubtedly view the succession as an opportunity to pull Azerbaijan back into its orbit. The Kremlin will be betting on Ayaz Mutalibov, a former Soviet communist party chief in Azerbaijan who lives in exile in Moscow. Another contender in exile, U.S.-based Rasul Guliyev, was the former parliamentary speaker. But both have been refused permission to register as candidates on technical grounds that they claim are politically motivated. The domestic opposition, which has already called Ilham's appointment a coup, is threatening mass demonstrations.

Urbane and sinister, Aliyev rose through the ranks of the KGB and Soviet Communist Party hierarchy to the Politburo, where he was famous for spectacularly fulsome tributes to Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. His career withered with the advent of Mikhail Gorbachev, but by 1993 he had maneuvered himself into the presidency of the newly independent Azerbaijan with a performance worthy of a Shakespearean villain. He first offered assistance to Abulfaz Elchibey, Azerbaijan's populist but inexperienced President. He then distanced himself as military and political opposition to Elchibey grew, and finally put himself forward as savior as the chaos worsened. "He was subtle, devious and cunning," recalls a retired Western ambassador who is close to the Aliyev family. He consolidated power, created an updated version of a Soviet ruling party, and was returned to office in elections that were widely condemned for what the U.S. called "numerous, serious irregularities." Had his health held up, he would have been re-elected again this year "by whatever margin he chose," the former envoy says.

Aliyev's greatest successes are the creation of his own power base and the establishment of a superficial calm after the bloody conflicts of the early '90s. He leaves few other achievements. He positioned himself as a pro-Western leader, cracking down on alleged Islamic fundamentalists. Yet U.S. officials say that al-Qaeda sympathizers and backers were able to operate comfortably in Azerbaijan. Corruption is also widespread, particularly, according to Western diplomats, in the ruling élite. Yet as long as Heydar Aliyev was around, observers felt, none of these problems would have prevented the succession gambit from working. "The old fox [had] the vision and ruthlessness to drive it through," says one Western ambassador. So far, Ilham has shown no evidence of inheriting his father's sense of the jugular. But with Heydar's many enemies waiting for signs of weakness, he'll have to develop one fast if he wants to survive.