Back from the Brink

Two

weeks ago, the unnerving game of tit-for-tat appeared to be escalating. When Pakistan tested its Shaheen missile system (capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the Indian capital of New Delhi) India retorted with its own provocative rocket launch within hours. Surprisingly, however, such brinkmanship may have spooked both nations enough to force a breakthrough in relations. When New Delhi announced on Wednesday that it was pulling back some of its 500,000 troops posted along its border with Pakistan, Islamabad said it would follow suit, and everyone concerned about potential nuclear holocaust in South Asia exhaled a bit.

In Islamabad, insiders say that both countries were often only a few steps away from all-out war over the past eight months. There was a constant rain of artillery fire on both sides of the border, and both armies were placed on highest alert in March following riots—Muslim-Hindu riots in Gujarat and last month when Muslim gunmen besieged a Hindu temple in the same western Indian state. These sources say that the U.S. played a key role in keeping the two nations at bay. On at least one occasion, the Pentagon's spy satellites picked up a sudden, secret build-up of Indian forces along the frontier. Washington made a 3 a.m. phone call to New Delhi warning Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government to step back from the brink. Faced with U.S. pressure, the Indians complied.

Now tensions have eased slightly. The artillery downpours have lessened to an occasional shower. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said that India's roll-back of troops was 'a step in the right direction' and he invited India to resume talks with Pakistan to defuse hostilities. But India refuses to see Musharraf unless Pakistan stops what New Delhi describes as 'cross-border terrorism.' Neither country has yet specified how many troops it will pull back, but India is expected to keep the bulk of its forces in Kashmir, where Muslim militants, backed by Pakistani religious extremists, are waging a 12-year long insurgency which has cost over 36,000 lives. This drop in hostilities might be momentary. In general elections on Oct. 10, Pakistani religious groups made a strong showing, and if they force Musharraf to resume support for Kashmiri guerrillas, it could draw India and Pakistan into yet another dangerous showdown.