The Long Goodbye

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Revolution and martyrdom are powerful concepts in the Philippines. Few people recognize this as well as President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. After all, she was elevated to the top job in 2001 through a popular uprising that ousted President Joseph Estrada. Last week, Arroyo attempted to switch from revolutionary hero to political martyr by announcing she wouldn't run for the presidency in the scheduled May 2004 elections. "If I don't make a sacrifice," she said during an event marking the anniversary of the death of martyred revolutionary hero José Rizal, "what will happen to our country?"

According to Arroyo, renouncing her chance for a second term will allow her to tackle the country's mounting problems without the compromises and pressures that go with candidacy. She says the so-called People Power II revolution that installed her tore the nation apart, pitting her middle-class and business-sector supporters against the impoverished masses who preferred Estrada despite charges that his administration was corrupt. (Estrada remains in jail at the Philippine Veterans Hospital awaiting trial.) "Since I am among the principal figures in the divisive national events of the last two or three years," she said, "my political efforts can only result in never-ending divisiveness." Her husband, José Miguel Arroyo, explained the decision more colorfully: "She got fed up with all these constant threats," he told reporters. "Now she can tell these people, 'F___ you, I will do what is right for the people.'"

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Arroyo quickly promised major new initiatives to bolster the fragile economy, which is burdened by a hefty budget deficit, falling manufacturing output and rising unemployment. She also said she would consider a proposal by a top ally, House Speaker José de Valencia, to form a "unity government" that would include representatives from all opposition parties, the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Communist Party.

Arroyo says she is sacrificing her political career for the public good. But by renouncing the leverage of incumbency, she may have turned herself into a lame duck. She has also exposed her country to an unusually drawn-out presidential race, raising the likelihood that little will get done. "She should have made this announcement right after she assumed office two years ago," groused veteran Senator Aquilino Pimentel. "She could have mobilized public support she needed at a crucial stage of her administration."

In ever-skeptical Manila, there are suspicions that Arroyo's pullout was a cynical play for public support—and that she'll later decide to run after all. But the 55-year-old former economics professor and devout Catholic is widely viewed as a straight shooter. Many assume she's simply lost her taste for the game—not least because so little has gone right since she took over. The Philippines, she said, is "now closer to the category of backward countries, wherein powerful, selfish interests are able to exploit poverty and ignorance." She also complained of a political atmosphere filled with "poison"—presumably a reference to fierce criticism of her husband and his alleged dealings with Congressman Mark Jimenez, who was extradited to the U.S. last month on fraud charges.

So far, only one politician, former Education Secretary Raul Roco, has formally announced an intention to run for the presidency. But there are plenty of other possible aspirants, including Fernando Poe Jr.—like Estrada, he is an action-movie star. Last week the political grapevine buzzed with rumors that ex-President Fidel Ramos might join the fray, although his candidacy could be blocked by a clause in the Philippine constitution preventing any President from being re-elected. (Ramos boosters say the constitution only bars Presidents from serving two consecutive terms.) The People Power II rebellion achieved its goal of getting one President out of the ornate Malacañang Palace and installing another. By announcing her plans to leave office, Arroyo may be signaling that the revolution is over—and now it's back to politics as usual.