The Week in Peace

Whi

le the world waits for bombs to start falling in Iraq, peace is getting a chance in some of Asia's perennial hot spots (the Korean peninsula excluded). Here's an update on some of the efforts to end years of bloodshed:

Nepal The government and Maoist rebels signed a truce on Jan. 29, bringing a pause to the seven-year feud that has crippled the country's economy. The rebels, who vowed to overthrow the kingdom and install a communist state, seem ready to bargain. Maoist leader Prachanda even promised "to foil attempts to sabotage [peace] talks." The government has yet to form a negotiating team, however. Observers fear a reprise of the 2001 talks, which the rebels ended by attacking an army barracks, killing 14 soldiers.

Philippines After two weeks of fierce fighting and bombings in Mindanao that left 200 dead, negotiations between the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the administration of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo are in bad shape. Recent evidence linking the rebels to al-Qaeda has helped fuel a troubling escalation. The U.S., which last year assisted the Philippine army's efforts to eliminate Abu Sayyaf guerrillas on the southern island of Basilan, will soon send 1,700 troops back to the region, including 350 members of the special forces, to help finish the job. But this go-round they'll be on the island of Jolo, a far more lawless place, and unlike last year, the Pentagon says American soldiers will take part in combat missions. Philippine officials say details are still being worked out, but any increased U.S. presence in the region is certain to fuel tensions with the MILF. "If negotiations fall apart—and it's more likely than not that they will—it will be back to the battlefield," says Parouk Hussin, Governor of the Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao.

Indonesia A "cessation of hostilities" accord signed by Jakarta and the insurgent Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in December has brought "demilitarization" to the long-troubled province. The rebels are supposed to turn in their weapons within five months while Indonesian troops pull back to "defensive positions." Civilian killings have dropped from a pre-accord average of 87 per month to an average of 12. Businesses are re-opening and foreign aid has begun to arrive. Still, international monitors have cited both sides for violating the accord. Chief Security Minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said the deal is on the "brink of collapse" due to continued rebel attacks and extortion of the citizenry. GAM, naturally, blames the army.

Sri Lanka On Feb. 22, against all expectations, Sri Lanka celebrated the one-year anniversary of its cease-fire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. On Mar. 18, formal talks will resume as the two sides continue to forge a federalist government. Not all is tranquil: on Feb. 7, three Tigers suspected of arms smuggling blew themselves up when international inspectors tried to board their boat. But chief government negotiator and Minister for Constitutional Affairs G.L. Peiris says that "the greatest achievement is the cessation of violence for a continuous period of one year." Given the state of peace today, it's hard to argue.