Generals Under the Gun

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h day Burma's iconic democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi remains in the custody of the country's military dictatorship, the cry for her release gets louder. Suu Kyi was detained by authorities on May 30, after a brutal government-backed ambush on her convoy in northern Burma killed and injured dozens of her supporters. The attack has shaken any faith overseas that it might be possible to sweet-talk Burma's generals into behaving in a more egalitarian fashion. It "was an act of terrorism against innocent civilians who simply believe in democracy," said U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell.

His words weren't empty rhetoric. The U.S. Senate last week passed a bill proposed by McConnell that imposes stiff sanctions on Rangoon's generals, including a ban on some $350 million worth of goods the U.S. imports annually from Burma and a freeze on the regime's assets in U.S. banks. The Bush Administration has also thrown its weight behind the crackdown, with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell declaring in the Wall Street Journal last week that it was time to "turn up the pressure" on "the thugs who rule Burma."

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Powell is expected to lobby other Southeast Asian leaders, traditionally reluctant to criticize a neighbor, to take a stand against Rangoon at this week's ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh. The U.S. is also planning to raise the issue with China, which boasts some influence over the junta—although some observers say the Americans will save any diplomatic leverage they have with China for that other rogue Asian state, North Korea.

Gaining regional backing for sanctions will be a tough sell. Economic punishment is an imperfect lever for prying power from despots. Professor David Steinberg, a Burma expert at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., says sanctions will only render thousands of Burmese textile workers jobless. "Think Castro," says Steinberg. "Fifty years, and he's still around. Sanctions will pressure the Burmese regime, but they won't destroy it."

So far, nothing else has worked. The U.N.'s special envoy to Burma, Razali Ismail, last week met with Suu Kyi (she was unharmed, he said, contradicting reports that she was injured in the attack). But Razali's demand for her release was ignored, and the reconciliation process he tried to initiate is now in tatters. Will pressure from Asia and the U.S. persuade Burma's generals to release Suu Kyi? "Rationally, they should do it this week, before or during the ASEAN meeting," says a Western diplomat. "Then again, these are hardly rational people."