Your Move, Mr. Kim

In

October 1994, the U.S. and North Korea concluded a tense, two-year standoff with an accord that seemed to usher in a new era of cooperation in North Asia. By signing a deal called the Agreed Framework, the U.S. promised to provide impoverished North Korea with energy assistance. In exchange, the North agreed to halt production of plutonium that could be used to make nuclear weapons. Countries in the Stalinist state's menacing nuclear shadow breathed easier as then President Bill Clinton congratulated his envoys for coaxing the backward dictatorship toward joining the global community. On the day the agreement was signed, Clinton assured the world that the deal was "the first step on the road to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula."

In the nine years that have passed, it's become painfully obvious that Clinton's road to peace was a dead end. Instead of embracing the outside world and abandoning its nuclear-development program in 1994, North Korea today is more isolated, armed and dangerous than ever before—and once again, the U.S. is preparing to horse-trade with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il in hopes of convincing him to back away from the nuclear brink. This time, America won't be alone: upcoming negotiations, to be held in Beijing on August 27-29, will include representatives from China, Japan, Russia and South Korea, all there to help with the arm twisting. And publicly, the Administration of President George W. Bush is upbeat about prospects for headway during the multilateral negotiations. "I'd like to solve this diplomatically, and I believe we can," Bush said after the talks were announced.

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But underlying hopes that the crisis can be defused with more economic aid and security guarantees to the North is a growing sense of futility about negotiating with Kim. South Korea and China in particular want to continue propping up the North to keep the peace. But others, particularly U.S. hard liners, have concluded that more aid would only ensure the survival of a morally and economically bankrupt government—one that might collapse with a slight shove, thereby providing a more permanent and satisfying solution. "We have now spent more than a decade attempting to end North Korea's nuclear program through negotiations, bribes and appeasement," said Republican Senator Jon Kyl in January when introducing a bill containing measures to pressure the regime, including safe passage for its refugees to the U.S. "The result is a nuclear North Korea that is now attempting to extort even more." Says a Seoul-based diplomat: "The North Koreans have got to realize that people are deadly serious this time and that it's the endgame."

Given the burgeoning costs and complexities involved in the U.S. effort to rebuild Iraq after taking out Saddam Hussein, the fact that "regime change" is being discussed at all is evidence of rising exasperation with Kim. In the past year, the Dear Leader has repudiated all past nuclear bargains and treaties, including the Agreed Framework and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, all the while hurling provocative invective at the U.S. Kim's government acknowledges it has been carrying out a clandestine program to make bombs from enriched uranium. North Korea is believed to have enough fissile material for at least two N-bombs already, and since abrogating the Agreed Framework, Pyongyang officials claim to have extracted enough plutonium from spent nuclear-reactor fuel rods to make five or six more bombs.

		LATEST COVER STORY Is the U.S. Stretched too Thin? September 1, 2003 Issue Past Covers Asian Journey August 18-25, 2003 ----------------- Cool Japan August 11, 2003 ----------------- Gloria Arroyo August 4, 2003 ----------------- Women in China July 28, 2003 ----------------- Asian Longevity July 21, 2003 ----------------- Hong Kong July 14, 2003 ----------------- Southeast Asia July 7, 2003 ----------------- Kim Jong Il June 30, 2003 -----------------   ASIA  Terror: Hambali's heir apparent  North Korea: Kim's next move  South Korea: Reunification? ARTS  Movies: Singapore's gritty 15  Sports: Japan's no-hit wonders GLOBAL BUSINESS  India: The new middle class NOTEBOOK  Economy: Rational exuberance?  Afghanistan: The Taliban returns  Tech: Dawn of the worms  Korea: Roh's media feud  Milestones  Verbatim  Letters TRAVEL  Thailand: Saving Koh Samui from itself CNN.com: Top Headlines

Pyongyang says it needs nukes to protect itself from American warmongers. But its defensive weapon of choice is destabilizing to Asia. It risks touching off an arms race as technologically advanced countries, including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, hasten to build nuclear equalizers of their own. Pyongyang is under immense pressure to deal, and a look around the region offers a snapshot of how stressful life will be for the Kim regime if this week's talks founder. Russia, an old cold war ally, is currently staging a massive military exercise near the North Korean border, together with two of North Korea's traditional enemies, Japan and South Korea. The Australian and U.S. navies will muster in the Coral Sea in September to practice boarding hostile vessels, part of the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative, an 11-nation effort to cut off North Korean shipments of missiles and illicit drugs.

In early August, Taiwan impounded a North Korean vessel at the request of the U.S., confiscating 158 barrels of a chemical that U.S. officials said could be an ingredient for weapons of mass destruction. "More of its boats will be stopped," says a Western official involved in interdiction policy. "This is the future for North Korea." Even China, North Korea's only real benefactor and the host for this week's talks, is losing patience and has admonished North Korea to disarm.

Indeed, to the outside world it would seem in Kim's best interest to move swiftly to settlement. "North Korean leaders realize their economy is very sick, and they don't want it to die," says a Western diplomat in Seoul. Though Kim would not immediately get from the U.S. his full wish list—a security guarantee, diplomatic ties and an end to economic sanctions—aid would flow if he opened his nuclear programs to the invasive inspections that the U.S. and its allies demand.

Still, in the past when Kim has emerged from his hardened bunker, he has proven to be a maddeningly immovable negotiator. Talks leading to the 1994 Agreed Framework took 55 rounds to complete; current talks have not begun, yet already the North has set the process back by threatening to export nuclear bombs. "These are people who believe in letting 20% of their people starve if necessary," says Adrian Buzo, an Australian scholar who was a diplomat in Pyongyang in the 1970s. "They already have missiles. They have rudimentary nuclear devices. What can the world offer them?"

South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young Kwan has said he is expecting "a long process for settlement, rather than being too optimistic or pessimistic about the outcomes of the first round of talks." Because of the antipathy between Washington and Pyongyang, negotiations could last years. But some believe they might be over before they even begin. "I worry the Americans are only negotiating to show they tried diplomacy but wouldn't mind seeing the talks break down," says Zhang Tuosheng, director of research at the Foundation for International Strategic Studies in Beijing. Ultimately, Zhang fears, the Bush Administration wants to topple Kim. So what happens if Kim continues to stall and cheat? "At the end of that road lies the fate of Saddam Hussein," says a Western diplomat in Seoul. That's a far different path than the peaceful byway envisioned by Clinton nine years ago.