Whispers of Change

Dir

e political predictions are standard fare in the Philippines, which has experienced more than 10 coup attempts and two popular uprisings in the last two decades. But last week, rumblings that President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo might be overthrown by a coup or even another People Power revolt reached alarming levels. In a public statement, three Roman Catholic bishops warned the President early last week that "time is running out" and said that if there isn't an immediate revamp of the country's government, "no force on earth can ever stop the coming deluge of change." These exhortations for change echoed a similar call from a group led by former Defense Secretary Fortunato Abat; meanwhile, local newspapers carried ominous front-page features on the nation's increasingly angry, frustrated poor.

All these signs of discomfort could point to a very real eruption: sources close to the military tell TIME that an unknown number of retired and active officers are considering a putsch in which a self-appointed council would take power for up to three years before holding a new election. The plan, the sources say, isn't fully formed: apparently the group has yet to find a political figure to lead the charge. Possible candidates such as former President Fidel V. Ramos and longtime Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile scoff at the coup rumors. "Who is going to run the country?" asks Enrile. But other politicians are more concerned. House Speaker Jose de Venecia has called for emergency "unity talks" among politicians and civic organizations to simmer things down.

Arroyo has seen her popularity plummet since being elected President last May, largely because of unpopular economic moves like new taxes intended to combat the Philippines' budget deficit and a hike in electricity and petrol prices to offset rising oil costs, which have prompted numerous street protests. "These protests and bishops worry me no end," says Jose Ma. Rufino, national executive director of Arroyo's Lakas Party. "It's a new phenomenon." Unfortunately, coup tremors in the Philippines are anything but new.