Little Ricky Gets Rough

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Those who loathe Hillary no doubt cheered his words, but Lazio's job was to reel in the 7% who are undecided, and his attack didn't help. There's some evidence it may have hurt him. For months Clinton has trailed Lazio among white women--people who might be expected to support her but have been put off by the sense that her candidacy has more to do with her needs than those of New Yorkers. But an instant poll conducted after the debate by the New York Daily News found that by 2 to 1, women thought Hillary had won. Focus groups conducted by other newspapers found that female swing voters were turned off by Lazio's style--especially when he crossed the stage, got in Hillary's face and badgered her to sign a pledge to ban soft-money contributions. Few voters expect a candidate to sign the other guy's prop.

If Hillary does move up with women, it will be a vindication of the strategy devised by her top aides, pollster Mark Penn and media consultant Mandy Grunwald. They have run a campaign that treats Hillary like any other candidate and ignores the elephant in her living room--the negative feelings so many people have about her. "The issue had to be what can she do for New York, not her personality and marriage," says an adviser. "She had to demonstrate her concern for the people of New York, and that would set the stage for dealing with those other questions." It's a cautious strategy, but risky as well, because it is now too late to recalibrate her image. If she wins by a comfortable margin, it will be because Al Gore and Joe Lieberman win New York by a huge one. If she loses, it will be because she didn't address her problems early on--and Lazio, fighting back in Buffalo, made the most of them.