The Politics of War

Most Democrats didn't even try. Those vying for the chance to oust Bush from office were forced to wedge words of praise for the visit into statements criticizing his handling of postwar Iraq. John Kerry called the trip "the right thing to do." Spokesmen for Howard Dean, Joe Lieberman and John Edwards did the same. Even Hillary Clinton, whose own trip to Iraq on Friday was completely overshadowed by Bush's, commended the President. With the economy showing signs of a sustained recovery and with Bush having outfoxed Democrats in Congress to pass a massive new prescription-drug benefit for seniors, Iraq was starting to look like the President's greatest electoral vulnerability.

Then came Thanksgiving, and, for the moment at least, Bush seemed to have bested his opponents once more.

But if the President has learned anything, it is that P.R. triumphs can quickly fade or even sour. Although his Thanksgiving gambit played well at home, reviews were decidedly mixed in Iraq. As word of Bush's visit filtered across Baghdad, some Iraqis applauded the news, but many either dismissed it as meaningless or chided the U.S. President for never leaving the military base or meeting with any Iraqis. "I am very proud he came, but he should have come inside the real Baghdad," says Shuan Gharib, 32, a waiter. Says Alah Ghanam, 31, as he stands guard outside a western Baghdad restaurant: "He did it all for the coming election. But I have to say, coming to Baghdad was a very courageous step."

Courageous it certainly was, and a morale boost for G.I.s too. But not even a presidential visit can change the reality on the ground. In Iraq the U.S. and its coalition allies are trying to pacify and democratize a nation of 25 million people while fighting a guerrilla war against determined and increasingly effective insurgents. The morning after Air Force One left Baghdad, a U.S. soldier was killed in a mortar attack in Mosul. By the weekend, 79 Americans had been killed since Oct. 31, making November the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Iraq since the war began in March.

On Saturday seven Spanish intelligence officers were killed when their convoy was ambushed south of Baghdad. After the attack Iraqi youths celebrated by kicking the Spaniards' bodies. Bush's Thanksgiving Day swoop into Baghdad will inevitably tie his fate more closely to the volatile situation in Iraq. Having stood on Iraqi soil and committed the U.S. to seeing its mission through, the President will have little room to maneuver during the election campaign if he's faced with increasing calls to bring the troops home. If the American death toll slows, Saddam Hussein is found and democracy begins to take root, Bush won't need a campaign ad to make his point. But if Iraq gets worse instead of better, neither will his opponents.

—With reporting by Brian Bennett and Vivienne Walt/Baghdad and John F. Dickerson/ Washington