Can This Man Beat Blair?

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But that demographic may not be enough to get the Tories back to Downing Street. A distinguished lawyer with a precise manner and a long public career, including four years as John Major's hard-line Home Secretary, Howard is not a natural pick for young, multicultural Britons or those who want sweeping change. Frustration with politics as usual was a big factor in the protest vote that flowed to UKIP, which ran a brilliant insurgent campaign centered on the charismatic, perma-tanned Robert Kilroy-Silk, a former Labour M.P. who hosted a TV talk show for 17 years until he had to give it up in January after calling Islam a religion of "limb amputators." No one expects UKIP to make much of a dent in the general election, expected next spring, but the problem for Tories is UKIP's hypnotic effect on much of its own right wing. Howard is trying to position his party as responsibly Euro-skeptic, saying Britain should stay inside the E.U. but work to reform it. This is smart territory to inhabit. A majority of British voters oppose joining the euro and the European constitution — but they still want to stay in the E.U.

The problem is that 57% of Tories don't, and for many it's a crucial issue, so that a more moderate stance threatens internal schisms. During the campaign, Howard appeared rattled by the UKIP threat. He repeatedly inched toward them, saying he wanted Britain to regain control over social policy now given to Brussels, and finally stating he would unilaterally pull Britain out of the common fisheries policy if he couldn't negotiate changes — which could imply a messy breach with the E.U., since treaty revisions would require almost inconceivable unanimous consent from 25 member states. His best hope for not getting drawn deeper into the Euro-wrangling is the constitution: though it confers more power on Brussels, Blair will give it provisional consent this week, thus providing a handy enemy around which Howard's whole party can unite.

Howard has other problems. He says he wants to reach out to minorities who have long distrusted Conservatives, but his own right-wing record makes that harder. He can't capitalize on the disillusion caused by Iraq because his party strongly backed the war. And when Tories do manage to advance policies that gain popularity, Labour simply adopts them. Blair neutralized the Tories' main issue for last week's election by agreeing in April to hold a referendum on the constitution. Since then he has snatched Tory positions on compensating people whose pensions collapsed along with their companies and reconsidering fuel tax hikes scheduled for September. While Britain's economy remains strong — a growth rate last year of 2.3% — "disillusionment with Labour is a necessary but not sufficient condition for returning the Tories to power," says Nick Sparrow, managing director of the ICM polling firm. A recent ICM survey shows that voters still see Blair as more competent, trustworthy and in touch with ordinary people than Howard.

Howard plans to launch a raft of kinder, gentler new policies in the next few months. "We have to convince people we can make things better," he says simply. But there's no sign yet of any Big Idea emerging to engage voters. Patrick Seyd, co-author of a book on the Tory party, says it still hasn't recovered from Thatcherism, when it became more starkly ideological. The great issues that animated Conservatives then — excess union power and communism — have disappeared, with nothing much to replace them. "The conservatives' lust for power is beginning to re-emerge, which is crucial to internal discipline," he says. "But Thatcherism doesn't provide a guide to the 21st century. And they haven't managed to find the answer on Europe or on the role of the state."

At another campaign stop, Howard stepped off the helicopter and made animated conversation at a sailing school with Julie Cornish, a retired policewoman. Afterward, as she tidied up a small boat, her verdict was positive but tepid. "He can communicate, he's approachable, but all of them, once they get in, you don't know what's really going to happen," she says — and doubts she'll vote Tory next spring. If Howard is to return his party to power, he'll need much fairer winds than that.