Judgement Days

America and Britain are still coming to terms with the faulty intelligence they presented the world during the walkup to war in Iraq — and the political fallout is getting heavy. Last week, the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee issued a blistering critique of the CIA for exaggerating the threat of Saddam Hussein's illegal weapons, excoriating what it called a "global intelligence failure." That could be a bad omen for British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his intelligence chiefs, who are bracing themselves for the release this week of an independent report into the U.K.'s pre-invasion intelligence on Iraqi WMD. When he was appointed to head the inquiry back in February, former top civil servant Lord Butler said he would concentrate on intelligence "structures, systems and processes, rather than on the actions of individuals." But it's unlikely the leading players will get off scot-free. Some of the backwash is bound to swirl around Blair, as well as MI6's outgoing chief Richard Dearlove, and Joint Intelligence Committee chief John Scarlett, whom Blair controversially named as head of MI6 last May.

Among the Senate's tough conclusions: CIA analysts overstated Saddam's chances of possessing a smallpox weapon, and in judging whether Saddam was trying to get a nuclear bomb, the CIA relied in part on poorly informed contractors who had limited access to intelligence. The report also quotes the highest-ranking CIA analyst as saying she instructed staff to write "a speculative piece" that would "lean far forward" and "stretch to the maximum the evidence" in response to senior policymakers' interest in links between al-Qaeda and Saddam. That sounds eerily close to accusations made about the British government's September 2002 dossier, which included the claim that Saddam could fire chemical and biological weapons within 45 minutes. Blair's foreword pushed the case harder, calling the issue of Saddam's weapons a "current and serious threat to the U.K. national interest." Last week Blair admitted: "I have to accept that we have not found [WMD] and that we may not find them."

President Bush called the Senate report "useful" and has said he is "open for suggestions" on intelligence reform. But the President already shelved one overhaul plan after Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld objected to it. And the report put off until after the November election any examination of whether the faulty intelligence came about because of White House pressure. "It's designed to protect the Administration and put all the blame on the intelligence community," said one senior Republican.

Similarly, if Butler goes easy on Downing Street, the temptation for Blair will be to say lessons have been learned. But unlike Bush, Blair faces an immediate test of public reaction: two by-elections in Labour-held areas this week.