Can Megawati Win?

The final tally in Indonesia's presidential election isn't in yet, but with more than 70% of the 125 million votes counted, the partial results are already defying expectations. Front runner Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whom pollsters had expected to take up to 45% of the votes, is now predicted to win only a third of them. Former army chief Wiranto, whose Golkar party dominated April's parliamentary elections, is now in third place, with just 22%. And in the biggest surprise, President Megawati Sukarnoputri has more than doubled her projected share to take 26% of the votes. The final results won't be announced until July 26, but for now it appears that the embattled incumbent is headed for a September runoff against Yudhoyono, her former Security Minister.

It could be a tight race. "[Yudhoyono] may be the favorite, but it is way too early to count Megawati out," says Indra Piliang, a political analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta. "It now depends on who can win the support of the other parties." Indeed, in the event of a runoff between Yudhoyono and Megawati—which will occur if neither wins the required 50% of the vote in the first round—the two finalists will focus much of their attention on trying to woo voters who had supported Wiranto. But with the race still tight and many votes yet to be tallied, Golkar officials refuse to count their man out. "We have to wait for the manual count to be finished before we really know what position we have come in," says campaign chairman Slamet Effendy Yusuf.

Yudhoyono may have an edge for now, but Megawati has the power of the presidency at her disposal, as well as the largest war chest of all the candidates. And although many see the President as an aloof figure who has disappointed her supporters, a few nimble political moves—from cutting taxes to abolishing school fees to reshuffling ministers—could win over plenty of skeptics. "If she starts acting like a leader and makes some strong changes to the economy and the Cabinet," says Umar Juoro, of the Center for Information and Development Studies in Jakarta, "she has a chance of winning."