What Lies Beneath?

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When North Korea bought a dozen rusting Russian submarines in 1993, some observers worried that the scrap-metal hulks still carried enough high-tech equipment to help the North learn how to build its own submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Eleven years later, those fears may have been borne out: according to a report last week in Jane's Defense Weekly, North Korea is deploying missiles built with know-how gleaned from the subs and from Russian missile scientists. (Russian officials last week denied the country's scientists were involved.) With an expected range of at least 2,500 km, the missiles could threaten the continental U.S.—although some experts doubt the North's aging subs could carry out the operation. Says Hwang Jin Hwan, a professor from the South Korean government-run Korea Military Academy: "Even if they've developed these missiles, they can't hit the U.S. mainland because they can't get them across the Pacific."

While the new threat may be overblown, one concern is that possessing a nuclear-armed sub might make Pyongyang even less willing to freeze its nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang scoffed at a U.S. suggestion last month that it follow Libya's example by abandoning its nukes, calling the American offer a "sham." And the North has canceled high-level talks with Seoul, accusing it of kidnapping the 468 North Korean defectors who arrived in the South last week via Vietnam. Another round of multilateral talks on the North's nuclear program is due to start in September, but the chances of success seem slimmer than ever, says Nam Ju Hong, an expert on international relations at South Korea's Kyonggi University. "North Korea is moving away from solving the nuclear crisis," he says. "This is going to take a long time." Time that the North might use to develop more dependable nuclear weaponry.