Hostile Takeover

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Day one: without warning, hundreds of Chinese missiles strike Taiwan. Day two: China's jet fighters tear across the Taiwan Strait and reduce the island's air force to just 30 planes. Day five: paratroopers land near Taipei's Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall Plaza, storming the offices of President Chen Shui-bian. In 130 hours, China's hostile takeover of Taiwan is complete—at least in cyberspace.

Last week this ominous scenario—a computer simulation staged by Taiwan's armed forces—made headlines as evidence of the island's vulnerability in the face of the mainland's growing military might and underscored the frostiness of the cross-strait relationship as both sides wrap up war games. Chinese General Wang Zaixi promised to "crush" any move toward Taiwan's independence, and Taiwan Vice President Annette Lu fired back that the strait was in a state of "quasi-war."

The real battle, though, is being fought in the arena of Taiwan politics. Newspapers reported that military sources leaked the results on purpose. The simulation also looked to be stacked in China's favor: for a start, it didn't factor in likely U.S. involvement. Why would Taiwan's military profess to be so vulnerable? Possibly because they are eager to buy expensive weapons from the U.S., such as diesel-electric subs and Patriot-3 antimissile systems—and a crushing defeat at the hands of a virtual People's Liberation Army makes a compelling case for such an expense. Chen is asking the legislature to take early action on $18 billion in military spending, but he may face tough opposition. "The military is lobbying for the budget, and this was a way to remind people [why]," says Lo Chih-cheng, director of the Institute for National Policy Research in Taipei. Even if the arms deal isn't authorized, Taiwan may still enjoy the benefits of American military hardware: the U.S. said last week that it was thinking of stationing a second aircraft carrier in the Pacific—making it easier to keep an eye on the Taiwan Strait.