The New Leader of Indonesia

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Two days before the election that propelled him into the presidency of the world's fourth-most-populous nation, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono traveled to the campus of the Bogor Agricultural University for a very serious meeting. Leaving a group of aides waiting outside, the 55-year-old former four-star general strode into one of the institute's classrooms, a laptop tucked under one arm, to face six university professors. For the next three hours, he parried questions about his recently completed Ph.D. thesis: Agrarian and Rural Development as a Strategy to Eradicate Poverty and Unemployment. "We thought it was just going to be a few token questions," says Yudhoyono adviser Rachmat Witoelar. "He was, after all, probably going to be elected President in a few days. But they really grilled him."

The story illustrates much about the man Indonesians overwhelmingly chose to lead them: his undoubted intellectual heft—Yudhoyono's personal library contains 13,000 volumes—and a discipline that allowed him to finish and defend a doctoral thesis in the middle of a presidential campaign. Those were qualities Yudhoyono downplayed on the stump, where he touted a decisiveness honed through a 29-year military career. Unlike the incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri, Yudhoyono told voters, he wouldn't shy from tough decisions to tackle the country's social and economic woes.

Still, Yudhoyono's bookish side could translate into a wonk's caution when he assumes office. "Everything is calculated with S.B.Y.," says Salim Said, a military analyst who has known Yudhoyono for two decades. "He is too careful most of the time." Former colleagues agree that Yudhoyono is given to long, sometimes woolly deliberation before making decisions. He likes words like "comprehensive" and "integrated," says Marsillam Simanjuntak, a fellow Minister in the administration of former President Abdurrahman Wahid: "He is very methodical and orderly, and it's almost as if he feels sinful if he leaves some aspect neglected." Old friends from the military have similar recollections. "He won't rock the boat," concludes retired General Agus Wijoyo, who served with Yudhoyono in East Timor and at military headquarters in Jakarta. "Those who want faster reform will see him as too slow."

There's nothing wrong with caution when it comes to decisions that will affect 240 million people. But the political and economic realities facing the country's first directly elected President are big, and some require urgent action. Indonesia's military needs another big push to bring it under civilian control, and yet Yudhoyono's inner circle is crammed with generals and ex-military men. Marcus Mietzner, an Indonesian military researcher at Australia National University, argues that the core of Yudhoyono's problem is "indecision on policy issues." He points out that cleaning up the military was already needed when Yudhoyono held the powerful position of Coordinating Minister of Politics and Security under Wahid and Megawati. "There was no initiative on military reform from his office during his three years as Security Minister."

The new President will also need to engage with parliament, in which his party controls only 57 seats out of 550. "They could refuse to pass legislation in areas such as judicial reform and corruption," says Damien Kingsbury, a lecturer in Indonesian affairs at Deakin University in Melbourne. "And that would badly affect his economic platform."

Yudhoyono's supporters insist the President-elect can be firm when necessary, citing the government's swift arrest and prosecution of the Bali-bombing gang, which happened on Yudhoyono's watch as security czar. "He is persuasive, not authoritative," says Sudi Silalahi, a retired three-star general and one of Yudhoyono's key advisers. Silalahi points to the success Yudhoyono had in stopping religious fighting in areas such as Poso and Maluku through lengthy negotiations and peace agreements. "He can use both methods," concurs adviser Rachmat, who is widely tipped for a senior Cabinet position. "If the road is straight he will step on the accelerator hard. If it's winding then he'll go a little slower." Indonesians dumped Megawati to hand Yudhoyono the wheel—but they're expecting him to get out of first gear pretty fast.