Business: Current Situation: Nov. 12, 1923

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The center of the American busi ness stage has been almost monopolized by the stock market during the past week. Ten days ago share prices were distinctly weak; of the speculative "leaders," Can declined ¼ in a day, Baldwin ⅞, Studebaker ⅞, Steel 1⅛. Even the reliable chain stores sold off sharply. Stewart Warner dropped 3¾.

Then came the turn. Late one afternoon, U. S. Steel revealed a fine quarterly statement, declared an extra dividend of ¼. Next morning, by curious coincidence — if it was a coincidence — the redoubtable Jesse L. Livermore announced, apropos of nothing in particular, that he had turned bullish, that with agricultural recovery and a Euro pean settlement near at hand profits lay on the buying side, and that next year should be prosperous without becoming a boom. Stock prices soared. Can rose 5⅝ that day, Baldwin 5½, Studebaker 5⅝, Steel 5⅛, with lesser advances throughout the list, even among the rails. Sales on the Stock Exchange passed the million mark each day the rest of the week, and prices continued to advance, fractionally but steadily.

These optimistic events at once split Wall Street into two schools of thought. One declared its belief that the turn had come, and that pessimistic predictions regarding 1924 had been overdone. The other, bearish to begin with, continued in that frame of mind; it viewed with cynical suspicion the remarkable coincidence of the extra Steel dividend, Judge Gary's cheerful prophecies, Broker Livermore's equally cheerful pronouncement, the upward rush in the price of the four present leading speculative stocks.

When it came to explaining the motive behind the alleged bull manipulation of the stock market, however, wide differences of opinion were expressed. Some were im pressed with the maneuver chiefly as a drive against the "short interest," which was believed to be large. Others pointed out that 1924 was a Presidential year, that the Party in power might show more than verbal gratitude to anyone who could prevent depression and maintain prosperity at least until after election day. A third school maintained that large interests wished to stir up a good market in order to liquidate securities likely to decline further next year. All agreed, how ever, that, if manipulation was responsible, it was no "piker's game," that substantial financial interests had seriously committed themselves to it.

The test of all these widely varied views should come by the beginning of December, when Congress meets, although the reason for the price advance may not be clear even to the initiated before next Spring.

The stock market, as is well known, usually acts as a thermometer and barometer to general business conditions. The questions now asked are: Is someone putting a lighted match under the thermometer bulb? If so, who?