Thailand's Bloody Monday

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Muslim anger over what happened at Tak Bai means the violence is likely to escalate. Last Thursday, police defused a fertilizer bomb planted near a school in Narathiwat, and in the evening a bomb exploded in a nightclub in the border town of Sungai Kolok, killing two people, including a Malaysian tourist, and injuring 20. The following day, two separate morning bomb blasts in Yala province injured 18, most of them policemen. Thai Muslim leaders like the moderate Narathiwat cleric Abdulrazak Ali say the Tak Bai tragedy could transform an insurgency still largely confined to radicals and disaffected youth into a popular cause. "It will be impossible to control now," says Abdulrazak. "Before, the problem was just young people who were unhappy; now, it's everyone." Nat, a 30-year-old Muslim accountant who lost two relatives at Tak Bai, says she, like many in the south, knows members of the insurgency. "They are in every town and village," she says. "I know them but until now I did not support them. They had their own reasons for fighting. Now I have a reason too."

In a rare expression of public criticism, two of Thailand's ASEAN partners—Muslim neighbors Malaysia and Indonesia—have voiced concern over what happened at Tak Bai. There were demonstrations of around 500 people in front of the Thai embassies in Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta, and Malaysia's former Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad, urged the Thai government to consider autonomy for the south. "This is like the Palestinian issue," Mahathir was quoted saying in the Utusan Malaysia newspaper. "If settled early, there will be no problems. But the situation will get difficult if it is left to the command of the local army."

The U.S. has urged the Thai government to launch an investigation and "fully examine the circumstances of these deaths." Thaksin initially ordered an internal military probe. In a televised speech on Friday night, however, he announced an independent inquiry to be led by Pichet Soontornpipit, former parliamentary ombudsman. The inquiry, Thaksin said, would include legal and Islamic experts. "The people are entitled to the truth," said Thaksin, "and the government must not hide anything as it has no hidden agenda." Thaksin also expressed regret for the loss of life, and acknowledged that the local authorities erred in how they transported the detainees. But he said that "many weapons were found at the scene" (eyewitnesses and even one of the military commanders at the rally who spoke to TIME say the protesters were unarmed). And he stressed that security forces followed procedure, and that their response was appropriate given that they were facing a hostile crowd influenced, he says, by organizers linked to militants. "This is not about religion at all, [but] a matter of law and order," said Thaksin, insisting that his government was not anti-Muslim. "If I do not maintain law and order and the territorial integrity of the country, who will perform this duty?"

The Prime Minister's speech may have gone over well with his domestic audience, which approves of his tough approach to issues of national security. A war on drugs last year resulted in the deaths of some 2,200 people accused by the authorities of being drug dealers, many reported to have been gunned down in the streets by police. Public opinion polls at the time registered overwhelming approval for the government's actions. "It reflects [Thai society's] desire for decisive leadership," says Chaiwat Satha-anand, a Thai Muslim and political-science professor at Thammasat University in Bangkok. "If I were a politician, I would take that into account in my decision making." But Chiawat continues: "As a leader, you should be concerned with what kind of society you are creating when you resort to violence. He's playing into the hands of the extremists."

For his part, Traikwan Kraireuk, the Narathiwat military chief, is unapologetic about what transpired at Tak Bai. His handling of the protest was "not heavy-handed," he told TIME. He added: "I used the velvet glove. If I used the iron fist, everyone would be dead."