Candidates In the Wings

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b>SENATE CONSERVATIVES Senate Republican leader Bill Frist rose to the position in just his second term and quickly demonstrated that he could enforce the Bush agenda. The Tennessee heart surgeon is also known for his humanitarian missions to Africa—which could help put a more compassionate face on the party. Senator George Allen is well liked by his colleagues—he ran the Senate Republican re-election efforts this year—and was easily elected Governor and then Senator in his native Virginia. He's conservative enough to pass the party's litmus tests on abortion and taxes, and as Governor he enacted popular education and welfare reforms. Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas would be a favorite of religious conservatives. A convert to Catholicism, he has spoken out strongly against abortion rights and gay marriage and has championed the cause of refugees in Sudan, many of whom are Christian.

REAGAN HEIRS Of the past 12 Presidents, five have been Governors—running a state being a good way to showcase executive skills. Mitt Romney is a contender who proved he can reach beyond the party base when he was elected Governor of heavily Democratic Massachusetts in 2002. He has won plaudits from the right for leading the fight against gay marriage there, and he earned national acclaim by stepping in to rescue the 2002 Winter Olympic Games in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Romney was brought in to head the organizing committee, which had been plagued by scandal.) Colorado Governor Bill Owens' affable demeanor and big election victories—he won with 63% of the vote in 2002—have made him a much sought-after speaker in the party. He's known as an aggressive tax cutter.

Then there's the candidate who's really close to the President: Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida, who has a 62% approval rating in an important state. The First Brother last month rejected the possibility of running in 2008. But some folks close to him think he might change his mind if he thought it was for the good of the party.

Attorney General John Ashcroft or Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge too could catch the presidential bug. There's always the chance that a Draft Arnold movement could emerge, leading to the speedy passage of a constitutional amendment that would allow the Austrian-born Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, to make a run.

Whoever wants the job, this much is certain: much lies in the hands of George W. Bush. His adviser Karl Rove "will still run the party," says a Republican insider. "Everything from speaking events at state parties to Air Force One rides will go through him." A Bush endorsement could short-circuit the nominating process, just as Bill Clinton's support of Al Gore gave Gore a decided edge in 2000. Or the President could stay steadfastly neutral, as Reagan did in 1988, when his Vice President, George Herbert Walker Bush, faced five challengers and almost lost the nomination.