MEXICO: Next President?

Under Mexico's rigged political setup, the Presidential nominee of the Cárdenas-controlled Party of the Mexican Revolution (PRM) is virtually certain of election and the candidate backed by the potent, 1,000,000-strong Mexican Confederation of Labor (CTM) is virtually certain to be nominated by the Party. Last week, although President Cárdenas still has 21 months to serve and the election is more than a year away, the CTM put its seal of approval on square-faced, bullnecked, 43-year-old General Manuel Avila Camacho, until recently Minister of National Defense in the Cárdenas Cabinet. Official nomination by the PRM is expected to follow in a few months.

Another plug for General Avila came from the National Peasants Federation, which claims 2,000,000 members. A one-time cavalry officer who has always taken care of the Army's wants while in office, General Avila already has the backing of a large share of Mexico's military men, who compose the third largest voting bloc in the PRM.

The selection of General Avila by the Leftist workers' and peasant organizations was something of a surprise, since he is generally regarded as a moderate in Mexican politics. Leftist money was expected to go down on General Francisco Múgica, an ardent Left-winger and Cardenas follower. The expropriation of the foreign-owned oil properties year ago, however, caused a terrific loss of Government revenue, cut down production in many industries, led to sky-high prices, and, in some cases, lower wages. Ever since there has been a growing desire among many Mexicans for a more moderate policy than President Cárdenas', and best-informed opinion last week was that the well-organized labor and peasant blocs had sensed this desire and accordingly backed a candidate sure to get the nation's approval.