Parsing Iran's Nuclear Threat

In what could go down as either partial vindication or a bad case of dejà vu, Secretary of State Colin Powell last week went public with unverified intelligence that Iran is configuring missiles for nuclear warheads. The same day Powell revealed that tidbit, an Iranian exile group, considered a terrorist organization by the State Department, came forward with allegations that Tehran was enriching uranium at a secret site. A spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Minister denied both charges and suggested that U.S. officials "reconsider their intelligence sources." Diplomats regarded the timing of the exile group's claims as suspect since the International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing to meet this week in Vienna. The IAEA last week circulated a report that found no evidence yet of a bomb program in Iran, and the nuclear watchdog's board is considered unlikely to refer Iran's case to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions. But the IAEA report did criticize Iran for its long-standing "policy of concealment" and said the agency could not rule out the possibility of a secret weapons program. Iran struck a deal with the European Union earlier in the week to suspend its controversial uranium-enrichment activities by this Monday. According to Western diplomats, as the deadline neared, Iran stepped up its production of uranium hexafluoride, a gas that can be used to make nuclear arms. European negotiators will meet with Iran again next month, and sources tell TIME they plan to push hard for dismantling Iran's enrichment capability entirely, a prospect the Iranian national security chief dismisses.