The Road To Palestinian Elections

The U.S. and Israel are pinning their hopes on former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas to succeed Yasser Arafat as leader of the Palestinians. But among Palestinians there are growing anxieties about whether Abbas, a moderate who took over as chairman of the P.L.O. after Arafat's death, can survive the runup to the election for a new President, scheduled for Jan. 9. Two days after Arafat's funeral, gunmen opened fire inside a mourning tent in Gaza where Abbas was appearing, killing two of his bodyguards. Senior officials from Fatah, the main faction of the P.L.O., told TIME they are worried that more attempts to kill Abbas will be staged by groups within Fatah opposed to his election. Then there is the issue of the election's legitimacy. Fatah officials say that while Abbas will probably win, the lack of security in Palestinian areas could undermine the fairness of the vote, which would deal a blow to Abbas' credibility among ordinary Palestinians.

Israel is trying to bolster Abbas without openly embracing him. In a speech to Likud activists last week, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon backed away from long-standing demands that, as a starting point for peace negotiations, Palestinian leaders disarm militant organizations. Instead, Sharon hinted, he is willing to resume talks with Arafat's successors if they reduce anti-Israeli "incitement" in the Palestinian media and schools. But both sides know the era of good feeling may last only until the next terrorist attack. While Abbas is trying to secure an agreement from Hamas and Islamic Jihad not to strike before Jan. 9, Israeli intelligence officials say the threat remains high. "There has been no change in their motivation to commit terrorist attacks," says an Israeli intelligence official. "It's still 100%."