When Winter Comes

As if there weren't enough trouble in the world, there came a report last week of more ahead. Europe's and Asia's millions, living at best frugally, in some cases on starvation diets, are facing an even sterner winter than 1946-47. There is going to be less food to send them in 1947-48.

Any hope of Western Europe feeding herself had vanished. Spring floods and summer drought had reduced Italy's wheat harvest to a little more than two-thirds of what it was last year. Winter killing had ravaged the grain fields of France, Denmark, Belgium, The Netherlands. Ironically, the only successful crops in Europe were those planted almost wholly behind the Iron Curtain.

The worst news of all was that the U.S., which had had ten years of good crops, and which is the largest single supplier, this year had to record a failure. It had been a bumper year again for wheat, but the corn crop had withered. The total supplies of U.S. cereals, as estimated last week, were 14,400,000 tons under 1946, which was almost exactly the amount the U.S. had exported to needy nations.

Despite the partial crop failure, the U.S. had the grain to help feed the world. But the Government did not like to dip down too far into the nation's food bins. If crops were bad next year, the U.S. might need its surplus for itself. Farmers were storing some 70% of their wheat to 1) keep out of higher income-tax brackets this year, and 2) get better prices later on. Some farmers were feeding wheat to cattle and hogs.

Between now and Christmas the U.S. people would hear a lot about plans to bring the grain out. Any plans would inevitably put new pressures on the U.S. economy.