National Affairs: Primary Problems

As he painstakingly formulated his political plans over the past summer, Adlai Stevenson figured that he would have little serious Democratic opposition to his bid for the chance to face Dwight Eisenhower next year. Stevenson laid out his schedule accordingly: he would announce his candidacy in November and immediately begin concentrating on the campaign for the 1956 general election. He figured, as did most political observers, that he could carry the convention without having to dissipate his energy in the various state presidential primaries.

The plan made eminently good sense —until the moment that President Eisen hower's illness vastly increased the value of the Democratic nomination. Stevenson is still miles in front of any other candidate, and his nomination might be considered in the bag except for the troublesome tactical problem of the party primaries. On how to handle this, Stevenson has been getting conflicting advice. A fast-dwindling group of Stevenson followers argues that he is already so far ahead that he would be taking a needless risk by entering any primaries. A second group insists that Stevenson can prove himself the strongest Democratic candidate by entering a few important but carefully selected primaries.

Still another group—which includes Chicago's influential Mayor Richard Daley—thinks that Stevenson should enter all the primaries—or almost all—thereby avoiding charges that he is afraid to submit himself to the voters.

One In, One Out. In balancing the possibilities, Stevenson must consider the situation of his two most obvious rivals for the nomination: Tennessee's Senator Estes Kefauver and New York's Governor Averell Harriman.

Kefauver, who has left little doubt that he will run since returning from his two-month world tour, is unpopular with most of the big-city Democratic organization leaders and with many Southern leaders. He therefore has little choice but to throw himself into the primaries. In 1952 handshaking Estes Kefauver built up a great reputation as a primary campaigner—a reputation that haunts Stevenson's followers when they realize that losses to Kefauver in important primaries might kill Stevenson's chances. Almost forgotten is the fact that Kefauver's 1952 primary victories came almost entirely against minor opposition. In New Hampshire he beat a Harry Truman who did not campaign and who scoffed at presidential primaries as "eyewash." In Oregon Kefauver won with Stevenson's and Supreme Court Justice William Douglas' names on the ballot against him—but they had been placed there against their wishes, and neither campaigned. Only in Nebraska, against Oklahoma's Senator Robert Kerr, did Kefauver defeat a name candidate who was actively campaigning.