National Affairs: Primary Problems

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Wisconsin, April 3, is the toughest problem for Stevenson strategists. It is one of the oldest and most respected of the state primaries, and it is regarded as one of the truer tests of candidates' strength. It can be a make-or-break primary, as it was with Wendell Willkie in 1944. Estes Kefauver won in Wisconsin in 1952 (beating nothing) and has never stopped running; he has kept up regular correspondence with about 650 more or less influential Wisconsin Democrats. Stevenson's followers worry more about Wisconsin than any other primary partly because they fear their candidate would have to put on a Kefauver-type campaign, featuring handshaking, baby-kissing and folksy platitudes. Yet Stevenson has impressive backing in Milwaukee, Madison, Kenosha and Racine: at a recent Milwaukee County meeting of Democratic leaders, a straw vote went 19 to 3 for Stevenson over Kefauver. Wisconsin may be one of the hardest primaries for Stevenson—and it could be the one to assure his nomination.

Nebraska, May 15, is another state where Stevenson is being urged to enter as a condition for support from some important Midwest Democrats.

Oregon, May 18, is a primary in which a candidate's name may be entered without his consent. Kefauver won in 1952 against token opposition. Democratic State Chairman Howard Morgan recently announced for Stevenson, came out with a blast against Harriman and Tammany Hall Boss Carmine De Sapio. Jack Bain, who headed Kefauver's 1952 primary campaign, says that "we will get Kefauver on the ballot, by petition if necessary, unless the Senator objects himself—and I haven't heard of any objections." As they approach the Oregon primary, the Democratic hopefuls will be acutely aware that Oregon is where Harold Stassen lost the Republican nomination to Tom Dewey in 1948.

Florida, May 29, gives Stevenson a chance to show strength in the South. The state's liberal Democratic wing, led by ex-Senator Claude Pepper, will probably back Kefauver, as it did in 1952 (when Kefauver lost to Georgia's Senator Richard Russell). Popular Governor LeRoy Collins seems to lean toward Stevenson.

In a contest, Stevenson would be favored.

California, on June 5, is considered the most important of all to Stevenson. As one of the latest primaries, it gives him an opportunity to close his pre-convention campaign with a bang in a state that Kefauver carried easily in 1952 (against a slate headed by Attorney General "Pat" Brown). San Francisco Attorney De Lancey C. Smith says he has been instructed by Kefauver to get together a statewide organization for next year's fight. California National Committeeman Paul Ziffren is certain that Stevenson will enter the primary. "I would be shocked if he backed out," says Ziffren, "and I would be shocked if he did not win."

Good as his chances are, in California-and elsewhere, Stevenson faces his decisions on them with no joy. But as Alan Cranston, head of California's Democratic Council, says: "Adlai cannot be a reluctant candidate this time; that's like trying to be a virgin twice."