National Affairs: KEY STATE-PENNSYLVANIA

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Says Fine: "As of now, Pennsylvania is going to be Republican. But mind you, it has not solidified and a lot of people aren't saying anything. Emotional factors grow less & less important as Election Day gets closer. I believe this election will turn on two major questions: Will this prosperity hold up, and how do we best get peace? I hope Eisenhower talks more about these two big subjects."

Says Lawrence: "We have a chance. The decision of the voters doesn't really start to jell until Election Day is close at hand. People are thinking back 20 years and it is sobering them . . . they are prosperous and they want to stay that way. Our prospects depend on how well Stevenson gets his story across. So far, he is clicking."

As of this week, the great imponderable in Pennsylvania is Philadelphia—its voters may well tip the scales on Election Day. The Republicans can count on a majority of 200,000 or 300,000 votes from the Republican counties, the Democrats on an edge of up to 150,000 votes in Pittsburgh and the steel country. If Eisenhower can break even in Philadelphia he can win, by all indications, in a walk; if he can hold the Democratic lead down to 50,000 votes he can squeak through. But if Philadelphians vote Democratic in a big way, Adlai Stevenson could carry the state. (Truman carried Philadelphia by 7,000; F.D.R.'s biggest Philadelphia majority was 210,000 in 1936.)

The city's old Republican machine is all but extinct and no effective Democratic machine has replaced it. Both Eisenhower and Stevenson will be on their own in Philadelphia.

Best guess: the state will go Republican.