STATE OF BUSINESS: Recession: Date Postponed

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The best advertised recession in history was also turning out to be the hardest to recognize. Said the National City Bank of New York, in its monthly business letter last week: "Those who have looked to the fall season as a testing period for predictions of a business downturn will find little in the record of October to support pessimistic projections . . . The date of the much advertised 'recession' must again be postponed." Agreed the Chase National Bank: "Business as a whole is still extraordinarily good."

The Commerce Department last week reported that during September personal income was at an annual rate of $286 billion, $9.5 billion ahead of a year ago and a scant $1 billion below the August level. October construction, both public and private, was highest for that month in history, and total construction for the first ten months hit $29.1 billion, up 7% from 1952. As more good earnings and sales reports rolled in, the stock market continued its eight-week rise, sending the Dow-Jones industrial average climbing up to 278.83, the highest since last spring. Commodity prices edged up also, extending the almost steady rise in wholesale prices from the two-year lows reached in April.

Nevertheless, there were still signs of weak spots in the economy. Business inventories crept up $600 million during September to a record $78.7 billion, in spite of the efforts of retailers to trim their stocks. There were also scattered production cuts, and layoffs, and some price cuts to relieve overstocking in gasoline, shoes, television sets, automatic washers and refined sugar. But from the standpoint of the whole economy, such cutbacks were not large.

Looking ahead, 100 top industrialists from 30 states, polled at a meeting of the National Association of Manufacturers, were all but unanimous in predicting that there will be no serious downturn. Sixty expect business next year to be good, 39 think it will be fair, and only one is looking for a slump.