National Affairs: What to look for On Election Night

AS early as 7:30 p.m. (Eastern Standard Time) on Nov. 2, there will be signs, for those who know how to read them, pointing the way in which the election is going. At about that hour, returns recognized as indicators will cause professional politicians across the land to reach for their pencils and recheck their hunches.

The first real signs will come from Connecticut, where the polls close at 7 p.m. and the count is usually fast. Professionals in both parties will listen for reports from the First Congressional District (Hartford), which went Democratic by 24,508 in 1948 and by 23,540 in 1952. What they will watch for is the size of the Democratic margin. If Republican Wallace Barnes is giving Democratic Representative Tom Dodd a close race, G.O.P. countenances will light up all over the U.S. But Democrats will smile if the first half of polling places to report give Dodd a lead of 10,000, indicating that he will win by 20,000. In this year of an anticipated light vote, a 20,000 margin in Connecticut's First would indicate that a national Democratic tide is rolling.

Just as closely, but with a different focus, politicians will watch returns from Connecticut's Third District (New Haven). The Third is a switch district: in Republican 1946 it went Republican by 23,000; in Democratic '48 it slipped to the Democratic side by 1,139, then stayed there by 7,000 in 1950; in Republican 1952, it switched back to the Republican column by 11,610. Early reports from New Haven brought the first deep frowns at Adlai Stevenson's headquarters on the evening of Nov. 4, 1952. In 1954, Republican trend-watchers will be pleased if G.O.P. Representative Al Cretella begins to pile up a good lead over Democratic Candidate James F. Gartland. They will begin to see a bad night nationally for the G.O.P. if Gartland moves ahead.

As they move westward on their maps, the professional politicians will stop at Kentucky's Third District (Louisville), where the polls close at 5 p.m. (Central Standard Time). The Third is Republican: by 17,300 in 1946, 9,291 in 1948, 12,428 in 1950 and 14,694 in 1952. This year G.O.P. Representative John M. Robsion Jr. should be able to hold his lead over Democratic Candidate Harrison M. Robertson to at least the 1948 margin. If he slips below that level, the danger flag will be up for Republican U.S. Senator John Sherman Cooper in Kentucky and for the Republican cause all over the U.S.

If the Democrats are in trouble, early signs may come from Pennsylvania: Democratic strategists feel that a net loss of House seats by the Democrats in Pennsylvania would indicate a national shift.

In the races for the U.S. Senate, early returns will be significant only if considered in the right context. Items:

In Illinois, Democratic Senator Paul Douglas is sure to run ahead of Republican Candidate Joseph Meek in Cook County (Chicago and its suburbs), but Douglas will need a margin of 150,000 there to carry the state.

In Ohio, Democratic Senator Thomas A. Burke will certainly run ahead of Republican Candidate George H. Bender in Cleveland, but unless Burke has a margin of more than 50,000 there he is likely to lose.

In Michigan, Republican Senator Homer Ferguson will surely run behind in Wayne County (Detroit), but he will be safe unless Democratic Candidate Patrick V. McNamara moves out of Wayne with a margin of nearly 200,000.